Here's How El Nińo Could Take Over California In 2026

Although this La Niña has not played out as expected — bringing heavy periods of rain instead of the typically dry winter for California — the climate pattern is weakening and is likely to shift toward neutral conditions in early 2026, with growing chances that El Niño could follow later in the year, climate experts said last week.

There's a 75% chance that the current La Niña pattern will transition to ENSO-neutral conditions between January and March 2026, according to the Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA’s National Weather Service. ENSO-neutral conditions, which fall between El Niño and La Niña, are expected to last through at least late spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

In December 2025, La Niña conditions were still evident across the Pacific Ocean as sea surface temperatures remained below average in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Atmospheric patterns also continued to align with La Niña, including stronger-than-usual easterly winds and increased rainfall over Indonesia, with drier conditions near the international date line, the climate center said.

At the same time, scientists observed early signs of change beneath the ocean’s surface. Temperatures became slightly warmer, with heat spreading eastward at deeper levels of the Pacific — a shift that often signals La Niña is beginning to weaken.

Climate forecast models from U.S. and international agencies agree that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to develop early this year. Even after that transition, forecasters say La Niña could still influence weather patterns into early spring.

Looking further ahead, models show increasing chances that El Niño could develop later in 2026, though scientists caution there is still uncertainty. Forecast accuracy tends to be lower during the spring, making long-range outlooks less reliable, NOAA said.

Changes in ENSO phases can affect weather patterns worldwide, including rainfall, temperatures and storm tracks across the United States.

El Niño years are often linked to wetter conditions in parts of the West and milder winters in northern regions, though conditions can vary.

A series of relentless storms in November, December and through the first week of the year may have surprised Californians expecting La Nińa — a drier winter. But a National Weather Service meteorologist told Patch in November that a weak phase like La Niña can still deliver a few surprises.

Brian Lewis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Oxnard office, said forecasters rely heavily on guidance from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center when interpreting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. This climate phenomenon can offer hints of how seasons may pan out, but it can't tell a complete story.

Most Californians understand that El Niño equals a wet winter and La Niña equals a dry one. But Lewis says that the rule of thumb doesn't always work.

The recent storms illustrate how other climate factors can override the typical influence of La Niña, especially when ocean temperatures elsewhere in the Pacific run unusually warm, he said.

“There’s even some interpretation that the warmer Pacific is kind of overriding some of those colder equator temperatures,” Lewis told Patch.

READ MORE: La Niña Usually Equals A Dry Winter. So Why Is CA Getting So Much Rain?