El Niño Likely to Bring Wetter Winter to San Francisco Bay Area

SAN FRANCISCO, CA — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted a strong El Niño event for the coming winter meaning the Bay Area is likely to experience above-average rainfall and snow.

The El Niño climate pattern occurs when the Pacific Ocean warms up causing a significant impact on weather patterns around the world, including in the San Francisco Bay Area. During El Niño winters, the Bay Area typically experiences warmer temperatures along with and more rain and snow than usual which can lead to flooding and mudslides, as well as increased water levels in reservoirs.

Warmer temperatures can lead to increased fire danger, as well as more mosquitoes and other pests.

While El Niños do not automatically guarantee wet weather for California, historically, the stronger an El Niño is, the more likely it is that the state will have a rainy winter season. After the series of atmospheric river storms last winter that ended the drought and filled reservoirs that were nearly dry, another rainy winter could increase flood risks.

“The climate models are in strong agreement that there will be an El Niño,” Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said. “At this point it’s looking likely.”

According to a May 11 El Niño watch report issued by NOAA, while "at least a weak El Niño is likely," the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) include a 80 percent chance of at least a moderate El Niño.

Here in California, the state has a 46 percent chance of a strong El Niño by November, increasing to 54 percent by January and that could mean bad news Californians still recovering from the winter 2022/23 storms.

With NOAA predicting a strong El Niño for the coming winter, residents and businesses in the Bay Area should prepare for it's potential impacts, including making sure that homes and businesses are properly insured, and that they have a plan in place in case of flooding or other disasters.

Preparing for El Niño:

• Make sure your home is properly insured.
• Have a plan in place in case of flooding or other disasters.
• Stock up on food and water.
• Clear debris from around your home to prevent flooding.
• Trim trees and shrubs to reduce the risk of falling branches.
• Keep an eye on the weather forecast and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Potential impacts of El Niño in the Bay Area:

• Increased rainfall and snow
• Flooding and mudslides
• Increased fire danger
• More mosquitoes and other pests
• Warmer temperatures