Weather
Chances Increase For Tropical System To Form In Gulf Off FL Coast: NHC
With an area of low-pressure expected to bring heavy rains to Florida on Tuesday, much of the Tampa Bay area is under a flood watch.
The odds of an area of low pressure just off Florida’s east coast developing into a tropical system over the next four days have increased to 40 percent, according to the National Hurricane Center on Tuesday.
If it becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, it would be Dexter, the fourth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Though the showers and thunderstorms produced by the system are disorganized, it’s expected to move west across the Florida peninsula Tuesday and reach the northeastern Gulf, forecasters said.
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Conditions are favorable for the system to strengthen into a tropical depression while it moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf, NHC said.
From there, the system, designated Invest 93L on Monday afternoon, will likely target Louisiana and other Gulf Coast states, including parts of Mississippi and Alabama, AccuWeather said.
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Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is forecast for eastern Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and coastal Mississippi, with the possibility of 40 to 60 mph in southeastern Louisiana, experts said. The possibility of 40 to 60 mph wind gusts are expected to be confined to far southeastern Louisiana.
After making landfall, the system is expected to lose wind intensity, which will steer it north into the southern Mississippi River Valley.
The storm’s speed as it moves out of Florida will determine its strength. If it stalls over the Gulf or Louisiana coast, there could be heavier rain and more flooding, forecasters said.
The track it takes across Florida Tuesday will also determine its track and strength.
"The farther south that the tropical rainstorm is able to travel over Florida, the longer it will have over the Gulf to strengthen before landfall," Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather hurricane expert, said.
More showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region today, but mainly during this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall with flooding in urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas possible, along with gusty winds up to 50 mph. ⛈️ #flwx pic.twitter.com/QRVvSNxa1K
— NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) July 15, 2025
Whether the system strengthens or not, it will drop heavy rains on areas of Florida, which could cause localized flash flooding in some parts of the state through mid-week.
A flood watch is issued for much of the Tampa Bay area on Tuesday, including Citrus, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lakeland, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas and Sarasota counties, Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, shared in a social media post.
Anywhere from 2 to 4 inches are expected with locally heavier amounts in some areas from 2 to 9 p.m., he wrote. “These amounts, combined with yesterday’s heavy rain may cause some rivers and creeks to rise out of their banks. Flooding in neighborhoods with poor drainage is also possible.”
Here is the latest forecast for the Tampa region from the National Weather Service:
Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. High near 92. Heat index values as high as 101. South southeast wind around 6 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 11pm. Low around 75. South southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 90. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Low around 76. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 92. South southeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Low around 77. East southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night:Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. East southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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