Erin To Become Major Hurricane This Weekend, Forecasts Say

After forming earlier this week in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Erin continues to move across the ocean Wednesday morning at 20 mph and is expected to gradually strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday, meteorologists said.

“After struggling with a multitude of negative influences, she is getting herself together. Nothing a bit of tropical breezes, warm water and a juicy atmosphere can't cure,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News in Tampa, wrote in a Facebook post.

Erin, which has maximum winds up to 45 mph on Wednesday, will begin strengthening before passing just north of the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean, AccuWeather forecasters said.

The tropical system will continue to intensify from there as it hits warmer waters and low wind shear, CBS News said.

As of 11 a.m. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said there are no major changes to the storm's track.

"Erin is expected to become a hurricane late Thursday or early Friday and a major hurricane by the weekend," Phillips said. "A turn to the north is forecast as the storm passes north of Puerto Rico."

Even if the storm stays far offshore from the U.S., it could still bring dangerous rip currents and large swells to coastal communities, forecasters said.

"Environmental conditions north and northeast of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean will be very favorable for intensification and, as a result, Erin is expected to become a major hurricane this weekend," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

How quickly Erin turns to the north will determine how close the storm comes to the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda, AccuWeather said.

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While it’s too early to know Erin’s exact track, the storm most likely will curve north and steer out to sea away from the U.S. East Coast and Florida as it passes the Leeward Islands, experts said.

Both the European model and the American (GFS) model are in agreement that the storm will likely turn northwest and then north by early next week, CBS forecasters said.

“Only 1 out of 83 model ensemble tracks/possibilities have Erin getting close to Florida or a 98.8 (percent) chance the center stays east. Bermuda, however, still needs to closely monitor,” Matt Devink with WINK Weather wrote in a Facebook post.

Though Erin’s most likely track keeps it offshore, shifts to its path, such as the Bermuda high, extending west, could still bring strong winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding to parts of the U.S. East Coast, forecasters said.

If this area of high pressure does extend west, when paired with a cold front and dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S., it could allow Erin to track farther west, according to AccuWeather.

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