Erin Now A 'Catastrophic' Category 5 Hurricane: See Latest FL Impacts

Hurricane Erin intensified into a "catastrophic" Category 5 storm late Saturday morning and is predicted to double or triple in size by the middle of next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 2 p.m. Saturday, Erin was located about 205 miles east-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The storm was moving west at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph.

Mike Brennen, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said Erin had grown into a “very powerful hurricane.” He said the storm's winds gained 60 mph in intensity within about nine hours on Saturday.

“We expect to see Erin peak here in intensity relatively soon,” Brennan said in an online briefing.

The Hurricane Center said Erin should weaken somewhat late Saturday or early Sunday as the storm encounters increased wind shear and possibly takes in more dry air. However, forecasters predict it will remain a major hurricane until midweek.

Erin is moving through waters that are warmer than the historical average, not just at the surface but also hundreds of feet below. These warm waters, combined with very little in the way of dry air and wind shear, created "near-perfect" conditions for rapid intensification, according to AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

According to the latest forecast from the NHC, Erin's eye is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend.

After moving past the Caribbean islands, the severity of Erin's impact on the U.S. East Coast will depend on the storm's track, Accuweather said.

"Erin is forecast to slowly curve to the north as it continues to strengthen over the weekend. At this time, the storm is forecast to remain hundreds of miles off the East Coast," DaSilva said.

According to Accuweather, the strength and position of a high-pressure system over the central Atlantic Ocean and an approaching dip in the jet stream will be key factors in determining Erin's track in the coming week.

Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, models are in strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next several days, according to the NHC.

"In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough ocean conditions over the western Atlantic," NHC forecasters said.

Erin's proximity to the U.S. East Coast will determine the severity of the storm's impacts from Florida to Massachusetts and, later, for Atlantic Canada.

Some of the most certain U.S. impacts from the storm will be dangerous surf, beach erosion, coastal flooding and frequent, strong rip currents along the U.S. East Coast.

"Beaches along the entire East Coast, from Florida to New England and Atlantic Canada, will likely experience rough surf and dangerous rip currents as Erin tracks north and eventually northeast," DaSilva said.

Offshore wave heights may also exceed 50 feet at the height of the storm, according to AccuWeather. The massive waves will then move from the center as large swells, reaching coastal areas in the form of powerful breakers.

"Much of the U.S. East Coast can expect breakers of 5-10 feet in the surf zone. However, in areas of land that extend farther east, such as the Outer Banks, eastern Long Island and Cape Cod, breakers of 10-15 feet are likely," AccuWeather said.

Hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry said Erin gained strength at a pace that was “incredible for any time of year, let alone August 16th.”

Lowry said only four other Category 5 hurricanes have been recorded in the Atlantic on or before Aug. 16.

The most powerful storms tend to form later in the year, with the hurricane season typically peaking in mid-September.

In October 2005, Hurricane Wilma rocketed from a tropical storm to a Category 5 storm in less than 24 hours, according to National Hurricane Center advisories from that time. Wilma weakened to a Category 3 hurricane before striking Florida. Hurricane Felix in October 2007 took just over a full day to go from a tropical storm to Category 5 strength.

Including Erin, there have been 43 hurricanes that have reached Category 5 status on record in the Atlantic, said Dan Pydynowski, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

“They’re certainly rare, although this would mark the fourth year in a row that we’ve had one in the Atlantic basin,” Pydynowski said about Category 5 hurricanes. Conditions needed for hurricanes to reach this strength include very warm ocean water, little to no wind shear, and being far from land, he said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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