Hurricane Humberto To Strengthen, Imelda Could Form Soon: See FL Threat

Hurricane Humberto, forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane of Category 3 or higher by early Monday as it moves through the Atlantic, could soon be joined by a second storm, experts said.

As of Friday morning, Humberto has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and is moving across open ocean waters, the National Hurricane Center said.

It’s moving west into an area with warm waters and little wind shear to disrupt the system, which means it may rapidly intensify as it turns northwest this weekend, AccuWeather forecasters said.

It’s expected to pass between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast and will likely bring gusty winds and several inches of rain to Bermuda.

While it’s not expected to impact the U.S., the system forming behind it, Invest 94L, likely to become Imelda, is a different story, according to forecasters.

This tropical wave, located Friday near Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba, has an 80 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm over the next two days, NHC said.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the wave are organizing and an area of low pressure is expected to form along it by Friday night as it moves close to the southeast Bahamas, the agency said.

It’s expected to become a tropical depression once it’s near the central and northwest Bahamas over the weekend, forecasters said. From there, it will track north-northwest over the southwestern Atlantic.

“The tropical rainstorm moving toward the Bahamas will enter an area with less disruptive wind shear and very warm waters. Atmospheric conditions near the Bahamas should support tropical development over the weekend. Tropical downpours could soak islands across the Caribbean,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, said.

Whether Imelda forms or not, the system is bringing ongoing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Dominican Republic, Haiti and the Turks and Caicos Islands, NHC said. These rainstorms will likely spread across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba over the weekend.

While it’s too early for forecasters to pinpoint the storm’s long-range track and intensity, there’s a risk of wind, rain and storm surge for much of the U.S. Southeast coast early next week, the NHC said.

“There is an increasing potential for flooding rainfall in the Carolinas, especially if the storm lingers along the coast or if it stalls over land. We are advising people across the Carolinas to be prepared for the possibility of a landfalling storm between Monday and Wednesday,” according to DaSilva.

Much of the Florida peninsula has a medium risk of experiencing tropical rains and winds Sunday and Monday, according to AccuWeather. There’s a low risk that the storm will impact the Panhandle.

And eastern Florida, as far south as the Keys, north through the Jersey Shore will see rough surf and a risk of coastal flooding Sunday through Tuesday.

The two systems — Humberto and potentially Imelda — are just hundreds of miles apart, making for “a challenging and complex forecast,” DaSilva added. "There may be a meteorological tug of war between Humberto and an area of low pressure that is high in the atmosphere over the Southeast U.S. early next week."

He continued, “If Humberto has more influence, it could pull this new storm further east and away from the coast. If the Upper Low has more influence, it may pull this emerging storm toward the East Coast.”

This rare twin-storm phenomenon is known as the Fujiwhara effect, which happens “when two hurricanes spinning in the same direction pass close enough to each other, they begin an intense dance around their common center,” according to the National Weather Service. “If one hurricane is a lot stronger than the other, the smaller one will orbit it and eventually come crashing into its vortex to be absorbed.”

If the storms are similar in strength, they might merge as they gravitate towards each other or spin around each other before shooting off in different directions, NWS said. “In rare occasions, the effect is additive when the hurricanes come together, resulting in one larger storm instead of two smaller ones.”