Hurricane Season Heats Up As FL Watches For Storm Development

Though the tropics are largely quiet at the moment, a tropical wave coming off Africa’s west coast has a high chance of developing into the next named storm as it moves across the Atlantic Ocean, forecasters said.

The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be Gabrielle. Florida has so far been untouched by tropical storms this season other than dangerous surf as Hurricane Erin passed by the East Coast last month.

The wave, which was a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands as of Wednesday at 8 a.m., has a 70 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm over the next week and a 30 percent chance of forming in the next two days, the National Hurricane Center said.

Conditions are favorable for the system, which is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, to gradually develop by late this week or weekend, the NHC said.

It’s expected to move west-northwest at around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic into early next week, according to the agency.

“It is moving into an area with a lot of dry air, so development would likely start off gradually. There will be less disruptive wind shear as the tropical wave moves west this week,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, said. “This tropical wave is being steered west by the Bermuda high. If it remains weak, it is expected to continue moving west toward the islands. If the tropical wave strengthens faster, it will likely pull farther north and pass by the islands. Any possible rain and wind impacts would occur on the islands around the middle of next week.”

It’s likely the system will curve away from Florida and the U.S. in general, Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, wrote in a Facebook post.

“If it stays weak, it will go more West before beginning a curve. If this were to happen, island impacts are possible,” he wrote. “If it gets stronger sooner, it curves before ever threatening the islands. However, I'll say it again, if our string of East Coast fronts continue, this will curve away from the U.S. … A bit too early to know for sure.”

Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist for WINK News, said it’s too soon to determine the system’s track.

See Also:

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“No issues in the short term as it heads across the Atlantic, but it gets more interesting by the [second] half of next week. Does it impact the Caribbean or stay north? That's the million-dollar question,” Devitt wrote in a Facebook post. “The American model curves it out to sea and so do a majority of the European & Google model possibilities/ensembles, BUT not all. I do have a handful of potential tracks that go through the Caribbean. For that reason, it's too premature to say this will be a ‘fish storm.’ Wait until it develops and models handle it better. Remember how much Hurricane Erin shifted west recently compared to the first model runs? Patience is key here before jumping to conclusions.”

While there is “nothing else worrisome out there,” tropical activity should increase later this month into October, Phillips wrote. “Models still hint things start to pick up around the 20th in the Caribbean. That's an area we'll need to keep an eye on.”

He added, “A few ensemble models have been showing the possibility of some energy sneaking into the Caribbean or Pacific. That's often a possibility later in September or October. Remember, long-range models are notorious for spinning up stuff weeks out with it rarely coming true. What it DOES mean is they are sniffing out an eventual pattern change which will likely occur [in the second] half of September and into October. But for now, not a thing to worry about...except my hurricane snacks are gone.”

The current wave forecasters are watching will likely push out much of the dry air in the Atlantic that is hindering tropical development, DaSilva said.

This will create “atmospheric conditions that are more conducive to tropical development heading into the second week of September,” he said. “Disruptive wind shear is expected to ease across much of the main development region in the Atlantic next week. The tropical wave train may become very active by the middle of the month, increasing the risk of more tropical storms forming.”