Tropical Development Possible In Gulf, Heavy Rains Expected In FL

An area of low pressure off Florida’s east coast is being tracked for possible tropical development this week and has strengthened slightly, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The disturbance, which is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms Monday morning, has a 30 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm over the next week, the NHC said.

If it does develop, it could become Tropical Storm Dexter.

The system is expected to move west across Florida “during the next day or so,” before heading into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday, forecasters said.

Conditions seem favorable for the system to develop as it moves west into the northeastern Gulf later this week, they added.

Otherwise, it’s too soon to determine the system’s exact path, strength or any impacts, the National Weather Service in Tallahassee posted to X.

Whether the area strengthens into a tropical cyclone or not, Floridians should still expect a wet week.

Heavy rainfall is expected across parts of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast starting in the middle of this week, the NHC forecaster said. The rains will bring the possibility of localized flash flooding.

There’s currently a flood warning in place for Horse Creek near Arcadia at State Road 72, according to the NWS in Tampa Bay. Drivers should turn around and avoid flooding areas.

Parts of Florida could see as much as 6 inches of rain, forecasters with the NWS said.

In addition to Florida, the worst downpours are expected along coastal Alabama and Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana, according to AccuWeather. These areas could see 2 to 4 inches of rain through the middle of the week.

The greater Tampa Bay area will see periods of heavy rain Monday, Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a social media post.

“The best way to describe the forecast the next 36 hours is ‘brief tropical downpours that could happen at almost any time.’ In other words, Florida,” he wrote.

Here's the Tampa Bay forecast from the National Weather Servicefor the week:

Today: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 11am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 11am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 92. Heat index values as high as 103. West northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 11pm. Low around 76. North wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. High near 90. Heat index values as high as 101. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Low around 75. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 88. South wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Low around 76. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. South southeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. East southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

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