As Many As 5 Tropical Storms Forecast In August, Update Says

As tropical activity heats up this month, AccuWeather hurricane experts are predicting that three to five named storms could form in the remaining three weeks of August.

With wave activity increasing off the coast of Africa, Atlantic Ocean conditions are more conducive for tropical development, meteorologists said Friday.

Meanwhile, the updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlook says “atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to favor an above-normal season,” which is in line with its prediction first issued in May.

NOAA forecasters now expect 13 to 18 named storms this season, of which five to nine storms could become hurricanes and two to five of those could be major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher, which pack sustained winds between 111 and 129 mph.

August is historically the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season, experts said, with peak activity around Sept. 10 before storms dwindle in October.

Meteorologists are currently keeping an eye on four areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather said. These include a low-risk area in the Gulf, a second off the East Coast of the United States, a medium-risk area in the Atlantic and a high-risk area in the Atlantic.

AccuWeather experts said a system may develop later next week, with any effect to the U.S. the week of Aug. 17.

“A large plume of dust is moving off the African coast late this week. That dust plume will traverse the main development area of the Atlantic, where development is expected to occur through the middle of the week,” Chad Merrill, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, said. “Beyond the middle of next week, the dust train drops off significantly. We see an eventual favorable environment for thunderstorm clusters coming off the coast of Africa. The timeline for any potential impact to the Caribbean or the U.S. is Aug. 17 to 22.”

The area with the highest risk of tropical development potential in the Atlantic isn’t expected to be a direct threat to the U.S., Merrill added.

There is also a low-pressure area with “high potential” to strengthen into a tropical depression or storm in the central Atlantic, he said.

It will likely develop this weekend into early next week. This system also isn’t expected to be a threat to the U.S., as it’s expected to recurve somewhere near or east of Bermuda.

The next three storm names for this Atlantic hurricane season are Erin, Fernand and Gabrielle.

Their forecast comes on the heels of Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updating their outlooks for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which started June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

CSU’s updated prediction calls for a total of 16 named storms — including the four that have already formed — eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes Category 3 and higher this season.

This is more or less in line with the university’s forecast at the start of the season, which then called for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

“CSU continues to predict slightly above-normal Atlantic season,” Philip Klotzbach, CSU meteorologist, posted to X, adding, “Relatively warm Atlantic and likely absence of (El Niño) the primary factors.”

See Also:

• Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released By CSU Experts
• New 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast: Here's What To Expect In FL
• FL Polish Club Spent 3 Months Drying Out Historic Dance Floor After Hurricane Helene
• 5 Major Storms Forecast This Hurricane Season, FL Weather Experts Say
• New Forecast Predicts Up To 5 Major Hurricanes For 2025 Season

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