Peak Hurricane Season In FL: See Latest Forecast For Potential Storms

The Atlantic remains largely quiet as of Wednesday morning, which is the climatological peak of the 2025 hurricane season. But, forecasters say that should change in the second half of September.

While forecasters have two tropical waves on their radar — one in the eastern Atlantic, the other in the western part of the ocean — no tropical development is expected over the next week, the National Hurricane Center said.

Parts of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans have hit record levels of warmth this season, and The Washington Post said that may have led to fewer tropical storms. But that is likely to change.

"Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb said in a message that he thinks the period from late September through about early to mid-October is when hurricane-forming factors will intersect most comprehensively in the Atlantic, raising the risk of storms," the Post said.

With six named storms and only Erin strengthening into a hurricane — exploding into a Category 5 storm in about 24 hours — this hurricane season is now pacing a bit behind the historical average, AccuWeather said. Usually by now, there have been eight named storms and three hurricanes.

“This is the time of year when water temperatures in the Atlantic typically peak and atmospheric conditions are most conducive for tropical development. The frequency of storms in the Atlantic basin is highest on average on Sept. 10, according to historical data,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, said.

This is the first time in nearly a decade where there isn’t a named storm or threat of tropical development in the Atlantic basin, he said, adding, “It has only happened three times over the last 30 years.”

Every year since 2009, a named storm or an area of potential development has occurred on the peak day, WINK reported.

So far this year, the formation of storms has been hindered by areas of dry air in the Atlantic.

“It is unusual for the tropics to be this quiet, but not unexpected. AccuWeather predicted in March, when we issued our hurricane season forecast, that surges of dry air could lead to a midseason lull,” DaSilva said.

The second half of the season will be more active, as atmospheric conditions improve for tropical development.

Forecasters are concerned about the risk of rapid intensification of storms that move into or form in the Gulf, which has near record high temperatures, DaSilva said.

Colorado State University meteorologists said in their two-week forecast for Sept. 3-16 that the season will pick up this month.

"Global model ensembles are pretty aggressive with additional tropical cyclone development in days 8 through 14, with potential formations in the eastern Atlantic as well as in the western Caribbean/southern Gulf," according to CSU.

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