Tropical System Formation Off FL Coast Possible Over Weekend

An area of low pressure could develop off northeastern Florida or along the Southeast Atlantic coast over the July 4 holiday weekend, the National Hurricane Center said.

A tropical or subtropical depression has a 60 percent chance of forming in the area by early next week, the agency said.

The system is expected to move north or northeast away from Florida, according to forecasters.

Despite the odds of development increasing, there are “no changes to this. It’ll still move away from Florida and will not be a major threat to the United States,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post.

If the system does strengthen into a tropical storm, it would be named Chantal.

The system will still be a rainmaker for the state, NHC said. “Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.”

AccuWeather meteorologists have been eyeing this area of the Southeast for potential development since mid-June.

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Water temperatures in that part of the Atlantic and the Gulf are in the 80s, high enough to support the formation of a tropical depression or storm, AccuWeather forecasters said.

There is also low wind shear and high moisture levels off the Southeast coast that could spur development, they said.

Here’s the July 4 weekend forecast for the Tampa Bay area according to the National Weather Service:

• Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. South southwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. South southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Friday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 89. Heat index values as high as 98. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Friday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Low around 75. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.
• Saturday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 89. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.
• Saturday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8 p.m. Low around 77. South southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.
• Sunday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 89. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.
• Sunday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m, then scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Low around 77. South southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.
• Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. West southwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
• Monday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.

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