Tropical Disturbance Ripe For Development: Forecasters

TAMPA, FL — The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close watch on an area of low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean that may develop more over the next few days. Although still far away from the U.S. coastline, forecasters say the westward-moving storm is on a track that may eventually pose a concern for interests in the Gulf of Mexico.

Located about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands as of 2 p.m. July 2, the storm remained disorganized, forecasters said. They described the system as a “weak area of low pressure,” in the center’s Tropical Weather Outlook report. Even so, forecasters said “conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system later in the week.”

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As of Sunday afternoon, the storm was moving west at an estimated 10 mph. The system was given a 10 percent of developing more over the next 48 hours. Those chances rise to 50 percent over the next five days.

Should the storm develop enough to earn a name, it would become the fourth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Arlene formed before the season’s official June 1 start and quickly fizzled out. Tropical Storms Bret and Cindy formed in June.

While it’s still too early to tell what, if any, impact the system might have on the U.S. coastline, it serves as a reminder of the need to be prepared. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-average number of named storms this year. The government organization expects 11 to 17 tropical storms to develop over the next few months. That number includes the preseason Arlene. Of the 11 to 17 tropical storms, about five to nine of them are expected to become hurricanes, Ben Friedman, NOAA’s acting administrator said. Two to four major hurricanes with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph are anticipated as well.

“There is a potential for a lot of Atlantic storm activity this year,” Friedman said.

NOAA’s forecasters say there is a 45 percent chance that this season’s activity levels will be above normal with a 35 percent chance for a near-normal season. Forecasters say there’s only a 20 percent chance for the upcoming season to produce a below-normal number of storms.

See also: 2017 Hurricane Names - Is Yours On The List?

An average hurricane season produces about 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes. Three of those storms generally become major hurricanes.

Friedman stressed the need for people to get ready. “We cannot stop hurricanes, but we can prepare for them.”

Residents readying for the ongoing season can get tips and advice on the federal government’s Ready.gov website. Folks in the Tampa Bay area can also check out this related story: Hurricane Season 2017: What Tampa Bay Area Residents Need To Know.

Graphic courtesy of the National Hurricane Center