Tropical Disturbance Under Watch In Atlantic Ocean

TAMPA, FL — Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are keeping a close watch on a tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean that is showing some promise of developing more over the next five days.

As of Thursday afternoon, the system of “disorganized cloudiness and showers” extended from the Cabo Verde Islands off the west coast of Africa southwestward across the Atlantic. “Slow development is possible over the next several days,” the center wrote in its 2 p.m. July 27 Tropical Weather Outlook report. The system is moving in a westerly direction at roughly 5 to 10 mph. Forecasters have given the disturbance about a 30 percent chance of forming more over the next 5 days.

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Should the system develop enough to earn a name, it would be called Emily. The storm would be the fifth named of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.

Although it’s still too early to tell if the latest disturbance will have an impact on Florida, or any part of the U.S. coastline, it stands as a reminder of the need to be prepared, especially with the peak of hurricane season yet to come.

Season's Peak On The Horizon

Hurricane season technically lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30, but forecasters call the period between mid-August and mid-October the “season within the season.” This eight-week stretch “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The peak is historically responsible for major spikes in tropical weather activity, NOAA said. In fact, it accounts for roughly 78 percent of all tropical storm days on record. It is also the period when 87 percent of the category 1 and 2 hurricane days on record occurred. In addition, this period is responsible for “a whopping 96 percent of the major (category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days.”

So, what makes this eight-week stretch so special?

“Tropical waves are coming off of the coast of Africa roughly every three days, and the very early and late parts of the year provide additional types of potential seedlings,” NOAA’s website explains.

Other environmental conditions during the peak tend to be more conducive for storm development, as well. The factors that align during the peak period include wind, temperature and moisture. Wind shear that might rip disturbances apart in May, for example, tend to weaken by late August, NOAA said.

“This minimum in the shear combines with favorable thermodynamics – ocean temperatures in the deep tropics that increase with each day of summer sun, warmer air temperatures, and increasing atmospheric moisture,” NOAA explained. “When the dynamics and thermodynamics are in sync, as they often are from mid-August through early October, disturbances like African tropical waves can easily strengthen.”

The conditions gradually become less ripe for development in mid-October when increased wind shear tends to reappear and water and air temperatures cool.

Above-Average Season Forecast

Although it might seem unlikely given only four named storms so far, NOAA is predicting an above-average number of named storms in 2017. NOAA forecasters projected earlier this year the 2017 season will produce 11 to 17 tropical storms. Of the 11 to 17 tropical storms, about five to nine of them are expected to become hurricanes, Ben Friedman, NOAA’s acting administrator, said in announcing his agency’s 2017 predictions. Two to four major hurricanes with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph are anticipated, as well.

“There is a potential for a lot of Atlantic storm activity this year,” Friedman said.

See also: Above-Normal Hurricane Season Predicted By NOAA

An average hurricane season produces about 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes. Three of those storms generally become major hurricanes.

With hurricane season upon us, Friedman stressed the need for people to get ready. “We cannot stop hurricanes, but we can prepare for them.”

Residents readying for the ongoing season can get tips and advice on the federal government’s Ready.gov website. Folks in the Tampa Bay area can also check out this related story: Hurricane Season 2017: What Tampa Bay Area Residents Need To Know.

Graphics courtesy of the National Hurricane Center and NOAA