Tropical Storm Beryl Likely To Form, 3 Areas Of Interest Tracked: NHC

FLORIDA — A low-pressure system, Invest 95L, moving across the eastern Atlantic is poised to develop into the second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center.

If it does, it would become Tropical Storm Beryl. The season's first named storm, Tropical Storm Alberto, formed in mid-June and brought heavy rain to parts of Mexico and Texas.

The storm system Invest 95L, which is about 1,500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands, has a 90 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next two days, the agency said.

• Read: Second Named Storm Of 2024 Hurricane Season Likely To Form: NHC

The system “is gradually becoming better defined,” NHC said. “Showers and thunderstorms are also showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form later today or on Saturday.”

It’s expected to continue moving west at 15 to 20 mph and approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend.

The system is taking an unusual track for this time of year, forecasters said.

“This map is looking more like August, than June,” Denis Phillips, meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post.

Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto agreed, writing in a Facebook post, “Not too often we see a tropical system develop in the tropical Atlantic this time of year.”

If Invest 95L does become a tropical depression or storm, it’s hard to say where it will go after the weekend.

“Systems out in the Atlantic are way too far away to make a call on the track past the eastern Caribbean,” Phillips wrote.

The system will likely move into the Caribbean Sea as Tropical Storm Beryl early next week, according to Dellegatto.

“Long term is a tough call, as there is huge spread in storm direction and intensity 7+ days out. We will watch it,” he wrote.

Forecasters are also eyeing two other areas for potential development.

One is a tropical wave on the heels of Invest 95L. This new tropical wave, currently several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in the Atlantic, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves west, NHC said. It has a low chance of development — no chance over the next two days and just a 20 percent chance through the next seven days.

Meanwhile, in the western Caribbean/southwestern Gulf of Mexico, Invest 94L is a broad area of low-pressure associated with a tropical wave that’s producing widespread showers and thunderstorms.

It has low chances of development into a tropical disturbance or storm as it moves west over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche late Saturday or early Sunday. Right now, formation chances are 30 percent over the next two to seven days, NHC said.

Whether it develops or not, it will bring heavy rainfall to parts of Central America and Mexico through the weekend and is no threat to Florida, forecasters said.

Here’s the current weekend weather forecast for the Tampa Bay area from the National Weather Service:

• Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 11 a.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 4 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 104. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Friday night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8 p.m. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 78. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Increasing clouds and hot, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 102. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Saturday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 77. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Sunday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Monday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.