Tropical Storm Bret Likely To Strengthen Into Hurricane In 4 Days: NHC

FLORIDA — After developing over the weekend, Tropical Storm Bret is moving west in the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the next couple of days, said the National Hurricane Center in Miami during its Tuesday morning update.

The hurricane center said Tropical Storm Bret was located about 1,130 miles east of the Southern Windward Islands and is heading to the Lesser Antilles at 17 miles an hour. This motion is expected to continue for the next several days. The Lesser Antilles is about 950 miles east of Florida.

The storm has sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts. The tropical storm-force winds extend up to 45 miles from the center of the storm.

There are currently no coastal watches or warnings in effect for Florida.

This is unusually early for a tropical system to form in this part of the basin from a tropical wave that emerged from Africa, AccuWeather said. Typically, these Cabo Verde systems, as meteorologists refer to them, develop during the heart of the season from August through September.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Bret could become a hurricane in a couple of days.

“There is a possibility the system may take a more westerly track or perhaps a last-minute jog to the north as it approaches the Caribbean,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said., adding that this is an example of why people in the system’s path should focus on the entire window of movement, rather than just the center of the storm's path, as well as projected impacts of torrential rain, gusty winds and rough surf.

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Although Bret remains a well-organized tropical cyclone on satellite imagery, its overall appearance has changed little since Monday evening, said the hurricane center.

A mid-level high pressure area is expected to remain positioned to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next few days, resulting in little change to the storm's motion through the next 72 to 96 hours.

Afterward, a mid-tropospheric trough near the Florida peninsula should cause the deep layer ridge to weaken somewhat. Vertical shear is predicted to increase with an upper-level trough over the eastern Caribbean, and drier air should cause TS Brett to weaken after it moved into the Caribbean.

Given the larger-than-usual uncertainty of the track forecast, meteorologists at the hurricane center said it is too early to pinpoint the location of Bret's impact. However, everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane plan in place, said the NHC.

Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its hurricane outlook for the 2023 season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, saying the Atlantic coast of the U.S. can expect a "near normal" year that could include four major hurricanes that are a category 3 or higher.

NOAA predicts 12 to 17 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of these named storms, anywhere from five to nine could become hurricanes with winds that are 74 mph or higher.