Tropical Storm Bret Headed South Of Florida, Likely To Fall Apart

FLORIDA — As the season's first tropical storm continues moving west toward the Caribbean, forecasts show its course is likely to take it south of Florida, and dissipate on Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said.

The 11 a.m. NHC update said: "Weakening is expected by Friday once Bret moves over the Caribbean Sea, and the system is likely to dissipate on Saturday."

Tropical storm watches have been issued for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique and St. Lucia as Tropical Storm Bert moves close, said National Hurricane Center in Miami forecaster Richard Pasch on Wednesday.

The storm had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Bret is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles through Thursday morning and then move across those islands Thursday afternoon, producing a strong tropical storm with a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds and dangerous waves along the coast, Pasch said.

"Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where Bret's associated hazards could occur, but additional watches and warnings are likely for these and other islands in the Lesser Antilles today," he said.

He said the storm pattern remains fairly well-defined. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Bret further Wednesday afternoon and will provide a better estimate of the storm's intensity and structure.

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The forecaster said some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. But, there's good news for islands in the Caribbean. The atmospheric environment is expected to become increasingly unfavorable for Bret to intensify.

As a result, the tropical cyclone is likely to begin weakening in a couple of days, and global models show the system will degenerate into a wave as it approaches the western Caribbean Sea.

Pasch said it is too soon to know exactly where Bret's center will move across the Lesser Antilles island chain.

Currently, Bret is 505 miles east of Barbados, moving 16 mph west and producing winds of 60 mph with higher gusts. Bret's western motion is expected to continue west for the next several days as it moves across portions of the Less Antilles Thursday and the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

So far, National Hurricane Center forecasters are predicting Bret's impacts on Florida, which would come early next week, if at all, since the path of the storm appears to be moving south of Haiti, Dominica Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico.

Through Saturday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is possible with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles and Guadaloupe south to Grenada, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Isolated urban
flooding is also possible.

The next complete advisory from the National Hurricane Center will take place at 10 a.m.

Forecast For Florida

In the meantime, after early heavy early-morning storms over parts of Florida Wednesday, the National Weather Service said Floridians can expect more thunder and lightning throughout the day.

The weather forecast office in Melborne is warning of hazardous conditions in east-central Florida with possible tornadoes, severe wind, severe hail, lightning, flooding, dense fog, rip currents on the coast and possible waterspouts.

Strong storms will be capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and heavy rainfall. Shower and lightning storm activity across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast counties will continue to move offshore Wednesday evening.

For boaters, wind gusts of 40 mph or greater will be possible over inland lakes, the Intracoastal Waterway and Atlantic waters, particularly across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast counties.

Southwest to south winds will increase to 17 to 23 mph across the offshore Volusia and offshore Brevard waters Wednesday evening. Small craft should exercise caution.

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay said residents can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 2 and 8 p.m., with southwest winds of 9 to 14 mph with guests as high as 18 mph and a 30 percent chance of rain. More of the same is forecast for Thursday with a higher rain chance, about 60 percent.

South Florida will experience isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday with higher-than-normal rain and thunder chances, lightning strikes and gusty winds.

And there is a flood watch in effect for Marion, Putnam, Alachua and Gilchrist counties through Thursday evening with 3 to 6 inches of rain, flash flooding and flood threat increases for the rest of the Suwanee Valley. Residents can expect strong wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph and small hail. This storm pattern should continue through the weekend.

There's a moderate lightning threat advisory for the northeast Florida coast for Daytona Beach south to Melbourne and a high lightning threat from Melbourne south to Stuart.

Hurricane Season Predications

Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its hurricane outlook for the 2023 season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, saying the Atlantic coast of the U.S. can expect a "near normal" year that could include four major hurricanes that are a category 3 or higher.

NOAA predicts 12 to 17 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of these named storms, anywhere from five to nine could become hurricanes with winds that are 74 mph or higher.