Tropical Storm Gabrielle Expected To Form By Next Week, Forecasters Say

A tropical rainstorm could strengthen into a tropical storm by late this weekend or early next week, then grow into a hurricane by the time it reaches the Caribbean in the middle of next week, AccuWeather forecasters said.

So far, the development of a tropical depression has been stymied by dry air and wind shear as the system moves across the Atlantic. Conditions are expected to improve, paving the way for the potential formation of what would be Tropical Storm Gabrielle, experts said.

The broad area of low pressure, which strengthened into Invest 91-L on Thursday, has a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression before the weekend is over, according to the National Hurricane Center. The system has a 90 percent chance of strengthening over the next week.

It’s still too soon to know how the storm might affect the U.S., including Florida.

The 2025 hurricane season’s traditional peak is Sept. 10.

The storm will likely be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to later part of next week and could approach the region as a Category 2 hurricane, AccuWeather said.

Between Thursday and Friday of next week, the system could bring flooding rain, damaging wind gusts up to 100 to 120 mph, and storm surge flooding to parts of Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, forecasters said.

“People in Puerto Rico need to be prepared for wind and rain impacts next week. Heavy rainfall could cause flooding and mudslides in areas with steep terrain. Wind gusts above 60 mph could trigger some power outages on the island,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, said.

Beyond Puerto Rico, it’s too soon to know what path potential Gabrielle will take and how strong the system will be, forecasters said.

“Models still undecided on track and intensity. No clear center of circulation to pin a track on. Dry air also vexing Gabby (to be). Most ensembles either curve or fizzle,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, wrote in a Facebook post.

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Phillips added, “Time frame? [Six] or [seven] days from the islands. 12(ish) days from any possible impacts on the U.S. mainland IF it ever makes it that far. That’s a big IF. My advice? Buy hurricane snacks. Eat hurricane snacks. Repeat.”

Some models show that if the system rapidly intensifies, it will veer toward the Caribbean islands, WESH said. If the system stays weaker, it will shift further west.

The European model also shows the storm being squashed by a cold front moving southwest by the weekend of Sept. 14, according to WTSP.

As the tropics heat up this month, the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay warns Floridians to not fall for social media hype and false information as storms are tracked.

“During the hurricane season, beware of computer-generated forecasts … that may show a hurricane impacting an area 8 to 10 days (or more) into the future. These graphics seldom provide explanation or, at times, ever become reality,” NWS wrote in a post to X.

The agency added, “Instead, know where your information is coming from and ensure it is a reliable source.”