Tropical Storm Gabrielle Likely By Weekend Amid Near-Record Warm Gulf Waters

Tropical Storm Gabrielle will likely form in the Atlantic by the weekend, just days ahead of the 2025 hurricane season’s traditional Sept. 10 peak, forecasters said.

After this, activity is expected to ramp up for the remainder of the season, which ends Nov. 30, with near record-high water temperatures in the Gulf predicted to fuel the rapid intensification of storms, AccuWeather said.

A tropical wave bringing showers and thunderstorms to the eastern tropical Atlantic, several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, on Thursday morning, has an 80 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm over the next week and a 50 percent chance over the next two days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The system, which is expected to become Gabrielle, has started to consolidate and become better organized as it encounters environmental conditions more conducive for development, NHC said.

Through the end of the week, the wave will likely move slowly west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Once a tropical depression forms, the system is expected to pick up speed and reach waters east of the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week, experts said.

“People in the Northeast Caribbean should be on alert and closely monitor forecast updates. If this tropical wave develops and continues tracking west, it could bring rain and wind impacts to parts of the Caribbean during the middle of next week,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, said.

It’s too soon to tell what the path of future Gabrielle will be, he added. “The strength of the Bermuda high and steering winds will eventually determine if this tropical wave will continue tracking west toward the U.S. East Coast, or if it will turn to the north and curve out into the open Atlantic next week.”

Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, wrote in a Facebook post that it’s best to ignore track predictions more than 10 days out.

“They’re just not designed for accuracy that far out,” he wrote, adding, “Bottom line, while it's still too early for details, most ensembles show the storm staying offshore. (A similar track to Erin). Time will tell.”

Following this system, the hurricane season is expected to get busier with warm Gulf waters in the upper 80s to low 90s ripe for the formation of strong storms.

“A lack of storms has allowed water temperatures in the Gulf to surge to near record levels, increasing the risk of rapid intensification of a tropical storm or hurricane if it forms or enters the Gulf,” AccuWeather forecasters said.

These high water temperatures combined with systems encountering less dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear across much of the Atlantic and the Gulf mean “atmospheric conditions will be primed for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop” by mid-month, DaSilva said.

He added, "If anything goes in there [the Gulf], it almost certainly will become a major hurricane.”

Forecasters are already watching for another tropical wave that is expected to push off the coast of Africa next week.

The latest Global Tropics Hazards Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center says there’s at least a 20 percent chance of cyclone formation that’s at minimum tropical depression strength in the Gulf and Caribbean area between Sept. 10-16 and 17-23.