Forecasters Say 2 Rare Tropical Storms In June Could Be Caused By Climate Change

FLORIDA — In an usually active first month of the Atlantic hurricane season, meteorologists from the National Hurricane Center in Miami are tracking two tropical storms simultaneously but say neither should have a significant impact on Florida or other states along the East Coast.

The hurricane season's third tropical storm, Tropical Storm Cindy, is expected to behave much like Tropical Storm Bret, gathering strength in the Atlantic Ocean but then fizzling out before it makes any significant impact on land, said hurricane specialist Dr. Philippe Papin during the hurricane center's Friday morning forecast outlook.

However, while Bret is now in the Caribbean Sea, moving west below the Lesser Antilles islands, Tropical Storm Cindy is heading west-northwest through the Atlantic Ocean toward the Carolina coastline.

During its 10 a.m. update, the National Weather Service in Puerto Rico said Cindy is about 915 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at about 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of near 50 mph and higher gusts. The storm's tropical storm-force winds extend out up to 60 miles from the center of the storm.

There are currently no watches or warnings issued for Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands, according to the NWS.

The storm's general motion is expected to continue over the next few days as the forecast track remains well east and northeast of the northern Leeward Islands that include the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early next week.

While some additional strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, the hurricane center said TS Cindy, like TS Bret, will gradually weaken well before it makes the 1,552-mile journey to the East Coast.

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Papin said Cindy appeared to be in its strengthening phase Friday morning.

"A curved band formed overnight to the west of the center and has wrapped around on its southern semicircle," he said. "The intensity guidance is largely in agreement that Cindy will intensify for the next day or so, but are in less agreement of how quickly the storm will weaken after the shear increases."

Given TS Cindy's small size, Papin said forecasters expect environmental conditions will cause Cindy to steadily weaken over the next week "with the system likely becoming a remnant low sometime in the four- to five-day time frame."

Meanwhile, hurricane specialist John Cangialosi of the National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on TS Bret.

He reported in the 10 a.m. outlook that Bret is moving toward the west at about 21 mph with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph with higher gusts. Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 125 miles from the center.

This general motion is expected to continue moving away from the Windward Islands and across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, well south of Florida. Then Bret is expected to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by Sunday.

In addition to wind damage, TS Bret is expected to drench the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south through St. Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados, with 1 to 2 inches of rain with possible flash and urban flooding. The Lesser Antilles is located just above South America.

Swells are likely to increase in the central Caribbean Sea later Friday and Saturday, bringing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions to the Lesser Antilles.

The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency has reported power outages in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and the storm washed away one home and damaged several others.

Hurricane Season Predications

This is the first time since 1851 that two tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic in June. The hurricane season usually peaks in mid-August to mid-October, said hurricane center forecasters. The season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

However, forecasters say it's not unusual to have tropical storms in June. It has happened 34 times since 1851, when forecasters began keeping records.

The hurricane center said this occurrence is most likely due to the influence of the El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean that's producing

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declared the arrival of El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon, on June 8.

"Depending on its strength, El Nino can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world," said Michelle L'Heureux, climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center. "Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Nino. For example, El Nino could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Nino.”

In this case, forecasters say El Nino may be producing unusually high sea temperatures, resulting in the formation of the June tropical storms.

Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its hurricane outlook for the 2023 season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, saying the Atlantic coast of the U.S. can expect a "near normal" year that could include four major hurricanes that are a category 3 or higher.

NOAA predicts 12 to 17 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of these named storms, anywhere from five to nine could become hurricanes with winds that are 74 mph or higher.

In the video below, National Hurricane Center hurricane specialists explain how to use the hurricane center's graphics displaying the cone of impact.

"Even though this graphic is very popular," said specialist Robbie Berg. "it's often misunderstood and used in a way it was never meant for."