Updated 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast Released: What To Know

After a lull across the Atlantic basin going into the climatological peak of the 2025 hurricane season, AccuWeather forecasters have slightly reduced the number of named storms and hurricanes predicted to develop this year.

AccuWeather now predicts 13 to 16 named storms will form this year and six to nine hurricanes in an update to its hurricane season forecast that was first issued in March. The hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

In its initial forecast, AccuWeather experts predicted 13 to 18 named storms, with seven to 10 expected to become hurricanes.

Currently, two tropical waves moving west across the Atlantic aren’t expected to develop, forecasters said. Additional tropical waves are expected to move off Africa in the coming weeks and will be watched for potential development.

There is also a low risk of tropical development just off the U.S. Southeast coast from Sept. 14 to 16, AccuWeather said.

The forecast for three to five major hurricanes and three to six direct impacts to the U.S. hasn’t changed, AccuWeather said.

“Unusual surges of dry air, Saharan dust, disruptive wind shear, cooler water temperatures off the western coast of Africa, and other atmospheric conditions have hampered multiple tropical waves from developing into tropical storms or hurricanes, during [August and September] what are typically the peak weeks of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin,” Alex DaSilva, the outlet’s lead hurricane expert, said.

Major hurricanes Helene and Milton developed later in the 2024 season. Milton made landfall in the U.S. and devastated parts of the Southeast. Helene's rains far inland killed 160 in total and caused severe damage to communities and roads in the Appalachians, especially in the Carolinas, CBS News reported.

A total of 19 tropical systems formed in the Atlantic in 2024.

Though the tropics have been quiet so far this season, experts warn those in areas likely to be impacted by tropical storms to not let their guard down, as Gulf waters hit record-high temperatures, increasing the chances of rapid intensification of storms as they form.

Likening the temperatures to “high-octane fuel … a storm could rapidly intensify, perhaps close to the coast, and greatly amplify the danger, damage and impacts,” AccuWeather meteorologists said.
DaSilva added, “Please do not let your guard down or become complacent. The tropics have been unusually quiet during the typical peak weeks of the season, just like they were last year. It is important to remember that Helene and Milton both developed well after the climatological peak of the season last year.”

See Also:

• New Forecast Predicts Up To 5 Major Hurricanes For 2025 Season
• Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released By CSU Experts
• New 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast: Here's What To Expect In FL
• 5 Major Storms Forecast This Hurricane Season, FL Weather Experts Say
• Peak Hurricane Season In FL: See Latest Forecast For Potential Storms

More than 250 people died in Helene and Milton, and, in total, caused an estimated $385 billion and $430 billion in damages and economic loss.

While the Atlantic basin remains quiet, there are several areas forecasters are keeping their eyes on.
A tropical wave is forecast to move off Africa’s west coast by Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center. As it moves west-northwest over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, it has a 30 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm over the next week.

“This is likely to be early next week. Too early to know what will happen with this but right now definitely nothing to worry about,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, wrote in a Facebook post.

In a previous post, he wrote, “Historically, as we head into the [second] half of September, it's more likely a storm in the Atlantic curves away from the US than makes direct landfall. With all the fronts and troughs we've seen, those chances are even higher. The Caribbean is more than likely the area we will need to watch into early November.”