Early District 18 Voting Favors Democrat

Unions, marriage groups drive absentee voting in special election
By Hannah Hess

IowaPolitics.com

IOWA CITY — Democrats lead Republicans by about 2 to 1 in early voting for the high-profile Iowa Senate District 18 special election, according to the Linn County auditor's office.

On Friday, 3,987 absentee ballots had been returned for the race between Democrat Liz Mathis, of Robins, and Republican Cindy Golding, of rural Cedar Rapids. Of that total, 56 percent came from registered Democrats, compared to 24 percent from registered Republicans and 20 percent from no-party voters.

University of Iowa political science professor Tim Hagle said the current absentee tally "certainly means that Republicans will have to work very hard, because if they are behind by a substantial margin in the absentee ballots, you can pretty well assume that means they are behind in the vote count come Election Night."

But Hagle cautioned that Republicans tend to wait until Election Day to cast their ballots as a nod to tradition. The special election is Nov. 8.

In an interview with IowaPolitics.com, Golding described her campaign as a grassroots operation, with volunteers struggling to balance full-time jobs and community involvement with campaigning. She said Mathis' lead in absentee votes may be a reflection of the disparity in resources.

"I know what my team is doing and we are a small staff of volunteers and we have one paid campaign manager, and that's it," Golding said. "We're not paying people to go door-to-door."

Mathis reported four times more cash on hand than Golding in an Oct. 14 campaign finance report, filed with Iowa's Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board. She ended the fundraising period with $40,843 in her warchest, compared with Golding's $9,259.

But Iowa Democratic Party Executive Director Norm Sterzenbach said there is "absolutely no celebrating going on" in the Mathis campaign team with just 11 days until the special election. He also said that while some of the organizations backing Mathis likely deployed paid staff on their behalf, the Iowa Democratic Party did not pay people to knock on doors.

Voter turnout will decide whether Democrats maintain their slim majority in the Iowa Senate, a buffer against the agenda of Republican Gov. Terry Branstad and the GOP-dominated House.

Outside interests groups are playing a key role in mobilizing voters in the Eastern Iowa district. With control of the chamber hinging on the outcome, the race has attracted national attention from deep-pocketed donors, seeking influence on issues, such as school reform and same-sex marriage.

Sterzenbach said Planned Parenthood, statewide gay rights organization One Iowa, labor unions and education groups are among those helping the Mathis campaign on a day-to-day basis.

"We have been working on to get out the vote on the weekends —walking with packets, and stuff like that," said Tammy Wawro, a Cedar Rapids teacher facilitator and vice president of the Iowa State Education Association, which represents 34,000 educators in the state and has launched an absentee ballot initiative in Senate District 18.

"We have close to 1,000 members, and we're hoping to get about 40 percent to vote as absentees," Wawro said.

The union's website informs members that collective bargaining and public employee retiree benefits could be at stake.

"Our neighbors to the north, in Wisconsin, could not stop the Republicans from controlling their House, Senate, and Governor's office," the group warns in a flier about the race. "They now work under an 'Employee Handbook' adopted by the local school board rather than" bargained contracts.

Republican efforts also are being bolstered by outside influences who hope that a win for Golding could help a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage gain traction in the Legislature. Gay marriage has been legal since a 2009 Iowa Supreme Court ruling.

Mathis has said she supports the judges' decision to legalize same-sex marriage, while Golding would like to put a referendum on gay marriage before voters.

"We're doing everything within the legal limits of the law to get the voter turnout for Cindy Golding, whether it be absentee or turning them out at the polls," said Bob Vander Plaats, chief executive officer of The Family Leader, an Iowa nonprofit advocating for traditional marriage and against abortion.

Vander Plaats said groups of volunteers from his organization have canvassed neighborhoods to knock on doors. The group also launched a direct mail campaign with the National Organization for Marriage, a nonprofit that successfully advocated last year for the removal of three Iowa Supreme Court judges who were part of the unanimous decision legalizing same-sex marriage.

"This is a pivotal election contest in our battle to allow the people of Iowa the opportunity to vote to restore marriage," said National Organization for Marriage President Brian Brown.

One Iowa is countering the campaign with its call for donations to support Mathis, claiming marriage has never been threatened like this before.

Hagle suggested recent history could help predict the outcome of the Nov. 8 election.

In 2008, voters chose Swati Dandekar, who Hagle called a "fairly conservative, pro-business" Democrat, to represent them, over Republican challenger Joe Childers by 3,300 votes. In November of that year, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans 15,978 to 14,410, according to registration totals compiled by Iowa Secretary of State.

But as of Oct. 3 of this year, those numbers flipped. Republicans had 16,008 registered voters in Senate District 18, while Democrats had 15,745. The largest chunk of the electorate is 19,960 no-party voters.

Hagle predicts turnout among all groups will be high. "Unlike most special elections that are pretty ho-hum, this one is pretty important," he said.