Chamber Panel: Obama, Romney Race a Toss Up

Three of the state's foremost political experts said the presidential race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney remains too close to call, which is why New Hampshire's four Electoral College votes may figure prominently.

WMUR political analyst James Pindell moderated a three-member panel that included himself, former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand and Republican analyst Alicia Preston, owner of the PReston Communications consulting firm in Hampton.

They made their best predictions on who they believe will win all of the key races that voters will decide during the Nov. 6. general election during the Greater Portsmouth Chamber of Commerce's Bank of America's series breakfast at the Sheraton Portsmouth Harborside.

“There are more questions in the next five days than there are answers,” said Pindell.

While the panel could not say whether Romney or Obama will come out on top on election, they did predicted that U.S. Rep. Frank Guinta, R-NH, will defeat Democratic First Congressional candidate Carol Shea Porter. They also predicted that State Sen. Nancy Stiles, R-Hampton, will defeat Democratic State Senate District 24 candidate Bev Hollingworth and that Maggie Hassan might edge out Republican Gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne in the New Hampshire Governor's race.

The panelists also predicted the Executive Council race between incumbent Republican Chris Sununu and Democratic candidate Bill Duncan of New Castle will also be close on election day.

Marchand predicted the race in New Hampshire will be very close between Romney and Obama mainly because of voter dissatisfaction with the economy.

“It’s not that they’re doing cartwheels for Mitt Romney. They are just feeling really frustrated,” Marchand said. “We are looking at an unsatisfying result for most Americans.”

Nationally, Marchand said it is conceivable the presidential race could be so close that the winner will take home the needed 270 Electoral College votes, but lose the popular vote. Following the panel discussion, Preston and Marchand said it isn't out of the realm of possibilities that Romney and Obama ended up tied for Electoral College votes after splitting the key battleground states.

If that occurred, Preston said the U.S. House of Representatives would elect the next President of the United States and the U.S. Senate would chose the next Vice President.

“I have no idea what will happen with the electoral votes. New Hampshire’s four electoral votes could be huge,” Preston said.

But Preston said the fact that both President Obama and Romney will hold campaign events in New Hampshire through the weekend and Monday shows how close the race for the Granite State's four electoral votes really is. She said both campaigns want to sway the undecided voters and the one who displays the most energy during the campaign appearances may succeed.

Preston said voter fatigue with the campaign ads and the race in general could also be a factor. She joked about a new video that shows a five-year-old girl crying and when her mother asks her why, she says, “I am so tired of Mitt Romney and Barack Obama.”

“People are so tired of this race, but a lot of them don’t know how they are going to vote," Preston said.

When asked which New Hampshire communities could serve as bellweathers to determine the presidential race outcome in the Granite State, Marchand said it could be Rochester given its partisan demographics and its diversity of blue collar and white collar people.

He also said the Seacoast could serve as a bellweather depending on how some of the State Senate and NH House races are decided.

Marchand said towns like Stratham, Greenland and North Hampton could also be bellweathers because, “They look a lot like New Hampshire is starting to look.”