Will La Niña Winter Make It More Expensive To Heat Homes In NJ?

NEW JERSEY — Heating costs in New Jersey and most of the rest of the country should be about the same as last year as lower energy prices mostly offset colder weather associated with a La Niña climate pattern, the government said in a recent 2024-25 winter fuels outlook.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast, heating costs in New Jersey and the Northeast are expected to be:

• Natural gas: About 1 percent more expensive than last winter, an average of $770 for the season
• Electricity: About 5 percent more expensive than last winter, an average of $1,390 for the season
• Propane: About 1 percent more expensive than last winter, an average of $1,670 for the season
• Heating oil: About 5 percent cheaper than last winter, an average of $1,410 for the season

"We expect that most U.S. households will spend about the same or less on energy than they did last winter, depending on a household’s main space heating fuel and the region where they live," the EIA said in their winter fuels report.

That’s assuming the forecast for La Niña winter to develop plays out. An updated winter outlook last week from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for the upcoming season to be warmer than usual, with near-average seasonal precipitation.

• Related article: Here's What La Niña Means For Snowfall In NJ This Winter, New Forecast Says

While lower prices and colder weather may combine for relatively little change in home heating costs in most of the country, one exception is the Midwest, where last winter was very mild. With a more seasonal winter expected this year, home heating costs could rise between 2 percent and 11 percent, depending on the energy source.

The southern U.S. is another exception. Winter in that part of the country is expected to be mild and heating costs could be lower than last winter, according to the forecast.

The price of crude is a wild card. Rising tensions in the Middle East raise “the possibility of oil supply disruption and future crude oil price increases,” the EIA said.