NJ Weather: See Timeline For 'Damaging' Storms, 60-MPH Winds, Hail

NEW JERSEY - Thunderstorms, "damaging" winds, heavy downpours and a chance of hail is in the cards for the Garden State today. But when will nasty weather strike the region?

As of Thursday at 2:30 p.m., 17 New Jersey counties are under a hazardous weather outlook issued by the National Weather Service. The listed counties are:

• Hunterdon
• Somerset
• Sussex
• Warren
• Morris
• Mercer
• Gloucester
• Camden
• Monmouth
• Burlington
• Ocean
• Middlesex
• Passaic
• Hudson
• Bergen
• Essex
• Union

"Isolated thunderstorms with strong to potentially damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and early evening," the agency said.

Major storms aren’t expected to hit the state until 4 p.m., although municipalities closer to the Pennsylvania border could see earlier showers this afternoon.

“The main story today remains the showers and thunderstorms developing along the cold front as it moves through the region this afternoon,” the National Weather Service said in a forecast discussion. “I think the main threat with the stronger thunderstorms that develop will be locally damaging winds, but small hail is possible as well.”

The region at risk for most damaging winds is along and northwest of the I-95 corridor, where the cold front is expected to push into the highest instability combined with peak daylight heating. Brief downpours are expected with heavier showers and storms.

Here’s what’s expected to happen:

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms should hit the state starting at 4 p.m., moving west to east. More rounds of thunderstorms are expected before 11 p.m.
• Temperatures in the mid-80s will fall to around the mid-40s degrees at night; winds of around 15 mph can gust up to 60 mph.
• Flooding risk is minimal; rainfall should total between a tenth and quarter of an inch, although higher amounts are possible during thunderstorms.
• The main storm should be ushered by 7 p.m., with scattered showers and thunderstorms and to follow until midnight Friday morning should see sunny skies and cooler temperatures around the 70-degree mark.

Here’s the latest forecast:

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4 p.m. Some of the storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. High near 84. Southwest wind around 15 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 69. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night: Increasing clouds, with a low around 50. Southwest wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.