Snow Estimates Drop For The Hudson Valley As Storm Shifts, Weakens

UPDATES:

• Fast Moving Storm To Leave HV Soon; Aftermath Will Be Cold
• Town-by-Town Snow Reports For The Hudson Valley

HUDSON VALLEY, NY — The nor'easter bearing down on us has changed so much in the past 12 hours that forecasts now say Dutchess and Ulster counties, where 8-12 inches were predicted on Sunday, may get very little snow at all. For Rockland, Putnam and Westchester, enough snow to shovel is still in the forecast to fall overnight into early Tuesday afternoon.

"It’s a sad Monday afternoon when an event with a unique set of dynamics ... begins to fall apart and diminish right before your very eyes," Bruce Furbeck of First Due Weather said on Facebook.

The National Weather Service predicts 6-10 inches in Rockland, Putnam and Westchester, and 8-11 inches in southern Westchester. However, Hudson Valley Weather has drastically lowered its prediction, saying Dutchess, Ulster and northern Orange may get a coating to 3 inches of snow, Rockland, Putnam and northern Westchester 2-6 inches, and southern Westchester 5-10 inches.

"What a mess," the folks at Hudson Valley Weather said Monday evening. "The past 24 hours have seen a stark and pronounced trend in the data for this storm. The storm track has shifted a bit further south, but the recent data indicates the storm is projected to be less amplified and weaker."

A continued southward trend of model guidance would require farther reduction in snowfall amounts across the interior of the Hudson Valley, the NWS acknowledged. Also, the timing of changeover from rain to heavy snow for the city/coast will be critical to snowfall amounts. An hour earlier or later will make a difference. Looks as if New York City and Long Island will bear the brunt.

"We’ve been watching this winter storm very closely for a long time and seen the track start over the Mid Hudson valley and then shift north, then shift back over the Mid Hudson valley, and then shift south and watching to see if it may shift north again, but it’s not," Todd Snow of Hudson Valley Weather said on Facebook at 8:35 p.m. Monday. "If anything, it continues shifting south. Doubt it will shift north again."

Snow is expected to begin from the southwest and move into the region between 2-5 a.m. It will end by 2 p.m., forecasters predict.