Troop Drawdown from Afghanistan on the Horizon

In October 2011 Fort Bragg troops assigned to Iraq went from 40,000 down to zero in 65 days honoring a 2008 security agreement. The estimated 66,000 U.S. troops and logistics of equipment in Afghanistan will be scaled down much in the same manner.

With twice as many troops in Afghanistan than when President Obama first took office, in Tuesday's State of the Union speech he announced the plan to bring home 34,000 troops by this time next year.

The news was somewhat expected after Obama met with Hamid Karzai in January where the U.S. forces military transition from combat to support roles will begin in the spring, when the Afghan forces will take the lead role in security.

“Beyond 2014, America’s commitment to a unified and sovereign Afghanistan will endure, but the nature of our commitment will change,” Mr. Obama said in a New York Times report. “We are negotiating an agreement with the Afghan government that focuses on two missions: training and equipping Afghan forces, so that the country does not again slip into chaos, and counterterrorism efforts that allow us to pursue the remnants of Al Qaeda and their affiliates.”

It not thought that all troops will be removed from Afghanistan, like in Iraq, and that the U.S. will remain a presence and staging base in the country.

The recent Commander of ISAF, Gen. John Allen proposed three plans in the fall for troop presence left in Afghanistan.

1. With 6,000 troops, the focus of the US mission would be on counter-terrorism missions, and logistical and training support for Afghan forces would be limited;
2. With 10,000 troops, the US could expand training and logistical support from the 6,000 troop plan;
3. With 20,000 troops, US conventional forces could be used to patrol certain areas.

According to the New York Times report reflecting the most recent withdrawal schedule, the number of troops is expected to decline to 60,500 by the end of May. By the end of November, the number will be down to 52,000. By the end of February 2014, the troop level would be around 32,000.