How Long Will PA’s Warm Fall Last? See The November Outlook

PENNSYLVANIA — If you’re looking forward to the chillier air that is historically typical in November, you may have to get out of Pennsylvania and head north to find it until an expected La Niña climate pattern ushers in colder, snowier weather more typical of winter.

In an updated November outlook Wednesday from The Weather Channel and Atmospheric G2, November temperatures are expected to be above normal across most of the state, and those in western Pennsylvania will be well above average. Daytime temperatures in October are usually in the mid-60s in the Keystone State.

High temperatures in Pennsylvania climbed into the upper 70s and even into the 80s this past week when the average high is about 57 degrees on Halloween, according to data from The Weather Channel.

Nationally, fall temperatures have been warmer than the forecasters originally expected. The hottest November temperatures are expected in the nation’s midsection, from Minnesota to Texas and western Montana to upstate New York.

The only places in the country expected to have near-normal November temperatures are Southern California and other parts of the desert Southwest. Predictions for unseasonably warm temperatures lingering into December come amid mounting concern that climate change is making summers hotter and extending the warm weather well into fall.

Earlier this fall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said they’re confident a La Niña to develop yet this winter, but doubt it will be a strong pattern associated with consistent cold weather and heavy snowfall or other precipitation.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a natural climate pattern that causes predictable changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. They’re not the only factors in weather, but El Niño generally favors warmer, drier weather, while the opposite is true with a La Niña. Either can have an outsized effect during the winter months.

Forecasters originally expected a La Niña to develop late last winter, which turned out to be the warmest on record in the continental U.S. and worldwide.