2 More Die Of Coronavirus In Travis County, Illness Count 21,822

TRAVIS COUNTY, TX — Two more people died of the coronavirus in Travis County on Tuesday, bringing the historical fatality count since the onset of the respiratory illness to 287, according to county health district officials.

The data is contained in a statistical dashboard maintained by Austin Public Health. In addition to the fatality count, health district officials reported the total number of cases of coronavirus across the county since the illness swept through is now at 21,822 after 273 new lab-confirmed cases emerged on Tuesday.

The data further show that 309 in Travis County are being treated at hospitals for the coronavirus, including 113 at intensive care units and another 74 placed on ventilators to help them breathe.

Amid the grim statistics, there is a promising sign: The rolling seven-day average for new hospital admissions is 37, well below the 70 mark that health officials have said could trigger a citywide shutdown in an effort to blunt the further spread of illness. The statistic is a slight uptick from the day before, but still well below the danger zone that could spark drastic measures to mitigate the level of illness.

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Another hopeful sign could be extrapolated from the number of recoveries, which was reported Tuesday at 19,570. But a recent change in those calculations have thrown the metric into question. The Texas Department of State Health Services recently changed the way it calculates recoveries, moving away from reliance on local reports to death certificates. The methodology change has altered the number of recoveries in some areas of the state as local health officials adhere to the new calculation standard.

Austin Public Health officials in early June said they would change calculations on estimated numbers of recovered cases from the coronavirus to parallel state criteria. The new method of calculating recoveries from illness is designed to align with new criteria established by the Texas Department of State Health Services, local health officials said.

The criteria used by state health officials is an estimate based on several assumptions related to hospitalization rates and recovery times, according to state health officials. The new calculation method will result in increased numbers compared to what Austin Public Health has previously been reporting on a stastical dashboard that is updated daily, local officials said at the time.

Austin Public Health officials explained how their Department of State Health Services counterparts calculate estimated recovery numbers:

• Inclusion of total confirmed cases.
• Removal of any fatalities.
• Estimating that approximately 20 percent of remaining cases required hospitalization and approximately 80 percent of remaining cases did not receive hospitalization (based on published study of trends in China).
• Estimating that recovery time for hospitalized patients is approximately 32 days, and recovery time for non-hospitalized patients is approximately 14 days.

Prior to those changes, local officials said, the recovery number presented on the dashboard was based on “reported” recoveries at the time of the case investigation. Austin Public Health officials expounded: "Case investigation requires extensive and time-consuming work and also results in a lag in data and an untimely representation of recovered patients. During the case investigation process, when an epidemiologist contacts the patient, they may still be experiencing symptoms and would not be classified as recovered at that time."