Austin Braces For Potentially Exceeded Hospital ICU Capacity

AUSTIN, TX — Unless residents alter their behavior toward thwarting further spread of the coronavirus over the course of the next week, the area could exceed hospital intensive care unit as soon as Jan. 7, health officials said Thursday.

"As our community decks their halls this holiday season, Austin Public Health wants to remind everyone that your decisions today, tomorrow and over the course of the next week will greatly impact the trajectory of the virus in Austin-Travis County," officials said in an advisory, one day after moving the region to the highest Stage 5 alert level for the contagious respiratory illness.

Such prognostications are underscored by new analysis from the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, health officials explained. The analysis suggests the region could exceed ICU capacity by early January if transmission of the virus isn't slowed.

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Such dire predictions prompted the move to Stage 5 of the Risk-Based Guidelines, which was followed by updated orders from the City of Austin and Travis County. In Stage 5, community members are issued specific guidelines to help mitigate illness spread:

• Not gather with anyone outside one's household.  

• Limit dining and shopping to essential trips.
• Avoid non-essential travel .
• Businesses are recommended to operate through contactless options (I.e. curbside, delivery).

To minimize the spread of COVID-19 and ensure everyone has a safe and healthy holiday season, Austin Public Health also is offering risk guidance for gatherings. To that end, read the health district's Holiday Safety Guidance.

“We urge you to think of your family and your friends as you contemplate your holiday plans,” Austin Public Health Director Stephanie Hayden said. “We want to be able to celebrate many holidays to come and to do that we need to stay home and stay safe this year.”

Austin-Travis County Projections Data

The UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium recently released COVID-19 healthcare projections for Austin under three winter holiday transmission scenarios. The scenarios follow an estimation that after the Thanksgiving holiday, the region saw a spike in transmission following ill-advised gatherings. Health district officials said the winter holidays will produce a similar spike. The model projections for reaching ICU capacity are as follows:

• Current transmission rate (estimated Dec. 19): A 32 percent chance that the COVID-19 ICU census will reach the estimated capacity of 200 by Jan. 7, with the median not reaching 200 by Jan. 20 (95 percent prediction interval: Dec. 31-undetermined).
• One-week spike in transmission: A 36 percent chance that the COVID-19 ICU census will reach the estimated capacity of 200 by Jan. 7, with a median date of hitting 200 of Jan. 14 (95 percent prediction interval: Dec. 30-undetermined).
• Two-week spike in transmission: A 39 percent chance that the COVID-19 ICU census will reach the estimated capacity of 200 by Jan. 7, with a median date of hitting 200 of Jan. 11 (95 percent prediction interval: Dec. 30-undetermined).

“The UT modeling data can be impacted by our personal behaviors and collective community action,” said Dr. Mark Escott, the interim Austin-Travis County Health Authority. “Let’s come together to change the projections and choose health this holiday season.”

For more information about COVID-19, visit the city's COVID-19 Information portal.