Austin Could Upgrade Coronavirus Threat Level To Stage 5

AUSTIN, TX — Travis County health officials will meet with community stakeholders on Wednesday afternoon to determine if Austin needs to heighten its warning level to Stage 5 — which could include a citywide shutdown — amid growing rates of the coronavirus, officials said.

Austin Public Health Director Stephanie Hayden was joined by the county's interim health authority, Dr. Mark Escott, in a morning news conference to apprise the public of soaring rates of the respiratory illness. The triggering point in going into Stage 5 is the rolling seven-day average for new hospital admissions that now stands at just shy of 75 — well above the threshold of 70 officials have said would prompt a move into Stage 5.

The various stages utilized by health officials convey the level of threat posed by coronavirus while issuing corresponding behavioral guidelines. Currently, Austin and Travis County are under Stage 4, which includes recommendations outlined in Stage 3 while advising individuals they are safe to return to work, dine and shop, only at “expanded essential businesses," as indicated on the Austin Public Health website.

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Stage 5, on the other hand, folds in Stage 4 recommendations while urging individuals to avoid all gatherings outside the household, and avoid dining and shopping except as essential. In this stage, health officials added, it is considered safe to return to work at essential businesses only. While not specified in the website description, Escott has repeatedly said the stage level also could include a recommendation for a citywide shutdown to help blunt the spread of illness.

As a result, health officials planned to meet with community stakeholders that includes the University of Texas at Austin and regional hospital systems to determine if the region needs to take heightened measures of mitigation, Escott said during the news conference.

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New data showing an hike in hospital admissions emerged Tuesday evening when case levels were updated on an Austin Public Health statistical dashboard that is updated daily. The 70-plus admissions data has triggered the discussion on whether or not to enter into Stage 5, officials said. The updated data shows an increase of 482 new cases of coronavirus on Tuesday, bringing the historical count to 12,408. In addition, seven new deaths — the same increase recorded on Monday — were blamed on the respiratory illness, raising the level of total fatalities to 151.

Aside from the raw numbers, a recalculation by health officials addressing diagnoses discrepancies also played into the mix, Escott said. Those discrepancies between the number of new admissions and the total increase in hospitalized individuals dates to June 23, Escott explained, and has been retroactively adjusted to achieve the 74.8 daily admissions level reflected in the latest data.

Ahead of the news conference, Austin Public Health issued the following statement explaining the changes in new hospital admission numbers, and how they are determined:

"The data for new hospital admissions per day has been adjusted today, July 7, to address discrepancies dating back to June 23 between the number of new admissions and the total increase in hospitalized individuals.

"Previous data sets did not retroactively adjust new hospital admissions for patients who were admitted to the hospital but did not receive a positive COVID-19 test result until after their initial admission date. Our updated data corrects for these discrepancies, putting us at 74.9 for the 7-day moving average of new hospital admissions per day, which is reflected in the COVID-19 dashboard and the Key Indicators dashboard.

"Utilizing the moving average of the new hospital admissions as the primary indicator, current Austin Public Health Risk-Based Guidelines recommend either Stage 4 or Stage 5 level of risk. The exact hospitalization trigger ranges from 70-123 new hospital admissions per day on the 7-day moving average, depending on the rate of increase.

"A more rapid increase in the daily average will trigger Stage 5 risk recommendations when the number reaches the lower end of this range.

"We are currently evaluating the impact of passing the threshold of 70 as well as updated modeling and secondary indicators, such as doubling times of cases, hospitalizations, and ICU patients, to make a final determination of the stage of risk for the City of Austin and Travis County later this week."

During the news conference, Escott said the Austin Convention Center was being prepped as something of a field hospital in anticipation of a patient influx — a measure Austin Mayor Steve Adler previously confirmed in his weekly Facebook update series. Escott suggested the function of the de facto medical site would be reserved for mild illness cases — people needing extra oxygen, for example — rather than as treatment facility for the truly sick.

In light of illness spikes, both Hayden and Escott urged residents to exit their homes only if absolutly necessary. Such outings include retrieving groceries, Hayden noted. She also urged residents to check up on loved ones to assess whether they have everything they need to practice the shelter-in-place tactic in helping mitigate illness spread.

Self-isolation is viewed as an effective tactic in blunting the spread of illness, along with the wearing of protective face coverings when among others. Residents also should strive to keep a healthy distance — six feet is the oft-advised distance — to further mitigate potential spread of a respiratory illness for which there is no vaccine.

This is how Austin Public Health describes its various risk level assessments:

• Stage 1: Practice good hygiene, stay home if sick, and avoid other people who are sick. APH is working on recommendations for maximum sizes of gatherings. Individuals are advised they are safe to return to work at all businesses.
• Stage 2: Includes the recommendations for Stage 1 and adds: Maintain social distancing and wear fabric face coverings in public. Individuals are urged to avoid dining and shopping except with precautions, and to avoid gathering in groups of more than 25 people. They are advised they are safe to return to work at essential and reopened businesses.
• Stage 3: Includes the recommendations for Stage 2 and also urges individuals to avoid all social gatherings, and any gatherings of more than 10 people.
• Stage 4: Includes the recommendations for Stage 3 and advises individuals they are safe to return to work, and dine and shop, only at “expanded essential businesses.”
• Stage 5: Includes the recommendations for Stage 4 and urges individuals to avoid all gatherings outside the household and avoid dining and shopping except as essential. In this stage it is considered safe to return to work at essential businesses only.

"Additional protective measures are recommended for people at higher risk, namely those aged over 65 or people with diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, lung disease, kidney disease, obesity, or those who are otherwise immunocompromised," health officials wrote on their website. Officials provide an example: Higher-risk individuals are urged to avoid dining and shopping except with precautions, and avoid gatherings of more than 25 people, even at the lowest level, Stage 1.

"As the stages progress from 1 through 4, higher-risk individuals are advised to limit the size of their gatherings, and their dining and shopping, to a greater extent than lower-risk individuals," health officials added. "However, by Stage 5, all individuals are advised to limit their activities and exposure to the same degree, whatever the condition of their health."