Austin 'Crime Wave' Assertions Disputed Amid Civil Unrest

AUSTIN, TX — Austin leads the nation in percentage increase of total homicides compared to last year — ahead of Chicago, Los Angeles and New York — according to new analysis. But the study's findings are being disputed locally by those calling for police reform.

The Wall Street Journal found that homicides have spiked in 36 of the nation's 50 largest cities during the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the Wall Street Journal reckoning, Austin leads the country in percentage increase of total homicides compared to the previous year, saying "...analysis of crime statistics among the nation’s 50 largest cities found that reported homicides were up 24 percent so far this year, to 3,612. Shootings and gun violence also rose, even though many other violent crimes such as robbery fell."

Exacerbating the rise, researchers suggested, is the state of communities that have been "...destabilized by lockdown and protests against police," researchers noted. "Police in many departments said robberies, burglaries and rapes are down so far this year because more people stayed home during lockdowns, leaving fewer prospective victims on the streets, in bars or other public places," researcher said. Robberies across the country are down as burglars are not likely to break into homes occupied with residents under lockdown, according to the findings.

In their study, researchers suggested violent offenders have been emboldened in acting out their crimes as police are distracted with monitoring protests.

While Donald Trump has blamed an uptick in violence on Democratic-run cities, researchers noted the crime scourge is not limited by ideology. Homicides are rising at a double-digit rate in most of the big cities run by Republicans — including Miami; San Diego, California; Omaha, Nebraska; Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Jacksonville, Florida — and in some cities run by Democrats and in two major cities run by Independents, San Antonio, Texas, and Las Vegas, analysts found.

But not everyone is accepting the findings.

"The idea that violent crime is 'on the rise' in Austin is an incomplete interpretation of the data, and the idea that Austin is experiencing some sort of 'crime wave' is a blatant falsehood," Austin Justice Coaition officials wrote in a response to the findings. "Overall the crime rate has been decreasing steadily in recent years, while the violent crime rate has been stagnant."

The Austin Justice Coalition has spearheaded Black Lives Matter protests decrying police brutality since such demonstrations began in late May. Civil unrest was sparked in earnest after the April 24 death of George Floyd, a Minneapolis man who died after an officer knelt on his neck for nearly nine minutes. A month before, Austin activists were already galvanized after the death of Michael Ramos, 42, who was fatally shot after a brief confrontation with police in South Austin despite being unarmed.

Austin Justice Coalition officials have sought to strip the Austin Police Department of certain functions — interacting with the homeless or confronting people in the midst of mental crises to name two — in a movement that has come to be known as "defunding the police." The Austin city manager acquiesced to such demands partially in recommending an $11.3 million funding cut of the police department's $400 million budget — a funding sliver most, if not all, of those calling for reform perceived as a pittance that will not spark wholesale departmental change.

Austin Justice Coalition officials perceive the study by the Wall Street Journal as tacitly endorsing full funding to fight the crime wave depicted in their study.

"Violent crime is often cited as a reason for increased and excessive funding to the Austin Police Department," Austin Justice Coalition officials wrote. "However, the data does not support the idea that increased funding to APD has been lowering the violent crime rate. APD’s budget has increased steadily over the past five years while the violent crime rate has held constant."

Austin Justice Coalition officials compared crime data from 2019 to 2020 to bolster their claim. "Comparing the period January through June 2019 with the period January through June 2020, we can see that the amount of crime in Austin hasn’t changed much," Austin Justice Coalition officials noted, providing a chart to buttress their view.

Graphic via Austin Justice Coalition.

"Overall, the number of crimes in Austin has actually experienced a slight decrease from 52,323 in the first half of 2019 to 50,170 in the first half of 2020 — a total decline of about 4.1 percent," Austin Justice Coalition officials wrote.

Acknowledging a "slight uptick" in violent crimes during the studied period — from 1,694 between January and June 2019 to 1,819 in the same period this year — Austin Justice Coalition officials noted the increase represents a 7.4 percent rise or a numerical increase of only 125 instances. The increase in a city of nearly 1 million people is nominal, the group suggested, and hardly the crime wave depicted in the Wall Street Journal study.

"When crime is low and there are very few crimes in total, a small numerical increase can result in what looks like a big percentage jump," Austin Justice Coalition officials noted. "In fact, these numbers tell us that violent crime remains low in Austin. It is also worth noting that violent crime makes up less than 4 percent of all crime in Austin."

Graphic via Austin Justice Coalition.

Moreover, the Austin Justice Coalition noted, from 2019-20 the population of Austin also increased — from 985,504 in 2019 to 999,991 in 2020 — meaning the violent crime rate as measured by violent crimes per 1,000 residents correspondingly increased by an even smaller percentage, a mere 5.8 percent. Meanwhile, the overall crime rate using the same per-capita ratio decreased by 5.5, according to the Austin Justice Coalition analysis.

"We can also look at the four categories of crimes included in 'violent crimes' — armed robbery, aggravated assault, rape, and homicide — and see that none of these have individually increased as much as some claim," Austin Justice Coalition officials said. "The number of aggravated assaults has increased by 8.2 percent from the first half of 2019 to the first half of 2020; the number of armed robberies has increased by 16.6 percent; and the number of reported rapes has decreased by 26.3 percent."

Representing crime spikes solely as percentages, officials added, paints a more dramatic landscape than if the same data were broken down numerically, Austin Justice Coalition officials noted: "While the number of homicides in the first half of the year does appear to have increased by 53.8 percent, the actual numerical change was from 13 in the first half of 2019 to 20 in the first half of 2020. Overall, murder makes up less than 0.05 percent of all crime in Austin."

Such small increases render claims of a crime wave as questionable, the group suggested: "Because homicide, and other violent crime categories, are such small absolute numbers from year to year, they have little predictive statistical value. Seemingly large percentage changes in the number of homicides from year-to-year do not significantly affect the homicide rate," Austin Justice Coalition officials said, measuring the increase against a per-capita metric.

"In the first half of 2019, the homicide rate was 0.013 incidents per 1000 people; in the first half of 2020, it was 0.020," officials continued. "This means that the 53.8 percent increase in the number of homicides from 2019 to 2020 only corresponded to an increase of 0.007 incidents per thousand people."

Given their own analysis of crime statistics, Austin Justice Coalition members concluded that "In general, this means that these small numbers cannot be used in forecasting. At this scale, they’re random quantities. A 'spike' of this size in homicides in a given month or year, while a tragic event, does not indicate a significant change to the general trend."

Austin Justice Coalition graphic.

"Violent crime has not shown a surge of growth in 2020," Austin Justice Coalition officials condluded. "There has been an increase of 125 cases compared to the same period in 2019 in a city of almost 1 million residents, which is a violent crime increase of 0.1 incidents per 1000 people. While there isn’t a surge of violent crime, APD also isn't decreasing violent crime, despite a funding increase of $65 million dollars over the past five years."

For added measure, the Austin Justice Coalition assessed crime rates against the Austin Police Department budget over a five-year period from 2015-19.

The Austin Justice Coalition provided links used in its methodology:

• Ongoing Austin Police Department crime data
• UCR Reports
• Violent Crime definition
• APD budget/expenditures
• Austin population histories and forecasts

"As the data above shows, Austin has not been experiencing a crime wave in the last year," officials insisted. "Overall crime has actually decreased, and increases in specific types of crime are small absolute numbers and represent even smaller percentages of Austin’s population. Taking a longer term view, we see that minor, month-to-month fluctuations in the number of violent crimes are common, with the general trend showing the violent crime rate has stayed relatively flat over the past five years."

Austin Justice Coalition graphic.

Backing up their assertions with data, Austin Justice Coalition broke down the numbers further:

• "In 2015 and in 2019 the violent crime rate was 3.7 incidents per thousand people, with the highest fluctuation between those years being 3.9 in 2017. For comparison, the national average crime rate in 2018 according to FBI data was 3.68."
• "Meanwhile, APD’s budget has increased by $65 million, or about 18 percent. In that same time period, Austin’s population has increased about 9.4 percent. For an 18 percent increase in police funding with only a 9.4 percent increase in population, one would expect to see a significant decrease in crime."
• "While Austin has seen a 15.5 percent decrease in crime, from 129 incidents per 1,000 people in 2015 to 109 incidents per 1000 people in 2019, that decrease is solely due to non-violent crime reduction. Violent crime has remained largely constant, contrary to what fearmongers have said. While violent crime is not hugely on the rise, neither has the overfunding of the police curbed it. We have been funneling more and more money into APD over the years without getting better results on public safety."

Austin Justice Coalition graphic.

Data Sources

The Austin Justice Coalition provided sources and methodology used in its extrapolation of crime data:

• "Throughout this report, data concerning numbers of crimes in Austin was taken from APD’s “Crime Reports” dataset, accessed through the City of Austin’s Open Data Portal (ODP) on July 30. This dataset is updated weekly and records all incident reports filed by APD officers, including the time, date, location, and highest offense listed in the incident report."
• "This dataset differs from the Uniform Crime Report (UCR), the dataset APD uses to calculate and report monthly crime totals. The ODP Crime Reports dataset records individual incident reports, while the UCR counts all crimes, including individual crimes recorded within a single incident. For example, a situation where someone both attacked and killed an individual would be recorded as two crimes on the UCR (aggravated assault and homicide), whereas it would be recorded as one incident on the ODP Crime Reports dataset."
• "The ODP Crime Reports dataset lists the highest offense for each incident, meaning that homicide totals should be consistent between the two datasets (as there is no higher charge). Other numbers and rates may appear larger on the UCR dataset, since single incidents are counted as multiple crimes. This can artificially inflate the UCR’s given violent crime rate, as some incidents are counted multiple times depending upon the charges involved."
• Additionally, Austin Justice Coalition officials noted, the UCR datasets for Austin were not made publicly available for 2019.
• The definition of “violent crime” used in its report followed the official FBI definition, which defines violent crimes as homicide (murder and nonnegligent manslaughter), rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.
• Throughout the Austin Justice Coalition report, population estimates were taken from the Austin City Demographer, estimated for April 1 of each year.
• In the first section of its report (“From 2019 to 2020”), only the periods 01/01/2019 to 06/30/2019 and 01/01/2020 to 06/30/2020 were analyzed, to enable a comparison between the two years.
• In the second section (“Crime Rate and APD Budget, 2015 to 2019”), crime totals and rates were calculated from the full calendar year (01/01 through 12/31) for each of 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019. APD budget data was taken from the City of Austin, and counted for the year the budget took effect. For example, the budget number used for 2015 was the APD budget for fiscal year 2015-16.

>>> Read the full Wall Street Journal report