Austin Rate Of Growth Unsustainable, Realtors Board Says

AUSTIN, TX — Austin can no longer sustain its current rate of growth given an influx of about 100 people a day moving into the city each day amid a dearth of available homes, according to a market report released this week.

The Austin Board of Realtors monthly report found home sales in Austin experienced a double-digit percent increase in October — creating a new record even as the inventory of single-family homes in Austin dropped to an all-time October low.

Underscoring the need for more diverse housing options in the city, the newly released Central Texas Housing Market Report was released mere days after officials reviewed the latest draft of a revised land development code, researchers noted. The upshot: The October report for Austin reflects a 14.5 percent increase year over year to 835 home sales, marking more homes sold than any October on record, according to market analysts.

The dire conclusion of the rough calculus: "Austin can no longer sustain its current rate of growth. With an average of 100 people moving here every day, the demand for housing is growing much faster than the number of homes available," Kevin P. Scanlan, 2019 ABoR president, wrote in the report. "Homes are hardest to find in the urban core where people can live closer to work and transit. Therefore, we need to plan more efficiently — not just in Austin's urban core but in transit corridors and activity centers as well."

The report noted that Imagine Austin, a 30-year comprehensive plan for the city’s growth, was adopted in 2012. But since then, the median price of a detached single-family home in the city’s urban core soared 67 percent — from $301,900 to $505,000. Emily Chenevert, chief executive officer of ABoR, said that finding the right land development code for the city is key to solving Austin's affordability crisis and ensuring sustainable growth for our region.

“In just the few years since Imagine Austin was passed, our community has already changed drastically,” she said. “We’ve lost precious time trying to find the perfect land development code solution, while home prices continue to rise and traffic continues to worsen. What we need right now is progress, through a working code that protects private property owner rights and ensures our region’s future growth is sustainable.”

According to the October housing market report, home sales are growing not just in the city of Austin, but across the region. The report provides a snapshot of each studied region:

Austin-Round Rock MSA

In the Austin-Round Rock MSA, single-family home sales in October experienced a double-digit percent increase of 16.8 percent to 2,721 home sales. Sales dollar volume jumped 23.3 percent to $1,084,580,726. The median price for single-family homes increased 7.4 percent to $327,500. During the same period, new listings increased 8.4 percent to 3,067 listings and pending sales spiked 25.2 percent to 2,866 pending sales. However, active listings decreased 12.1 percent to 6,381 listings. Monthly housing inventory declined 0.5 months year over year to 2.3 months of inventory.

City of Austin

In the city of Austin, the median price for a single-family home increased 8.9 percent to $405,000 — again, the highest median price for any October on record.

“If you restrict density and resist growth, especially in a rapidly growing community like Austin, you’re going to drive home prices up," Jon M. Roberts, principal at TIP Strategies, Inc., observed. "That means everyone below a certain income level won’t be able to afford to live in the community. The more a community advocates for no-growth and restricting density, the more exclusive that community is going to become.”

The city’s escalating demand and record-breaking median home price resulted in a 21.4 percent increase in sales dollar volume, raising October’s total to $407,873,084. During the same period, new listings decreased 5 percent to 840 listings; active listings decreased 25.1 percent to 1,229 listings; however, pending sales increased 8.4 percent to 745 pending sales. Housing inventory decreased 0.6 months year over year to 1.5 months of inventory.

Travis County

At the county level, single-family home sales jumped by 20.8 percent to 1,403 sales and sales dollar volume skyrocketed by 27.8 percent to $667,953,401. The median price for single-family homes rose 9.1 percent year over year to $385,000. During the same period, new listings increased 4.7 percent to 1,473 listings, while active listings decreased 16.6 percent to 2,743 listings. However, pending sales increased 18.9 percent to 1,325 pending sales. Monthly housing inventory decreased 0.5 months year over year to 2.1 months of inventory.

Williamson County

In Williamson County, October single-family home sales rose 14.3 percent to 888 sales; sales dollar volume experienced a double-digit increase of 19.7 percent to $286,068,265. During the same period, the median price for single-family homes increased 4.2 percent to $295,000. New listings increased 10.8 percent to 1,066 listings while active listings decreased 13.2 percent to 2,250 listings. Pending sales spiked 29.6 percent to 1,046 pending sales. Housing inventory declined 0.6 months year over year to 2.3 months of inventory.

Hays County

In October, Hays County single-family home sales increased 11 percent to 312 sales and sales dollar volume increased 9.6 percent to $100,655,239. The median price for a single-family home increased by 7.1 percent to $266,000. During the same period, new listings increased 6.6 percent to 372 listings while pending sales jumped 31.2 percent to 345 pending sales. Active listings dropped 5.2 percent to 931 listings. Housing inventory decreased 0.4 months to 2.9 months of inventory.

Bastrop County

In October, Bastrop County single-family home sales increased 4.9 percent to 86 sales. Sales dollar volume increased 11.5j percent to $23,162,486. The median price for a single-family home had a double-digit percent increase of 14.1 percent to $249,900. During the same period, new listings spiked 29.8 percent to 122 listings; active listings rose 14.3 percent to 352 listings; and pending sales skyrocketed 40 percent to 119 pending sales. Housing inventory increased 0.1 months to 3.8 months of inventory.

Caldwell County

In Caldwell County, October single-family home sales jumped 14.3 percent to 32 sales and sales dollar volume spiked 19 percent to $6,748,695. The median home price increased 0.9 percent year over year to $193,050. During the same period, new listings skyrocketed 88.9 percent to 34 listings; active listings increased 15.4 percent to 105 listings; and pending sales sharply increased 47.6 percent to 31 pending sales. Housing inventory rose 0.7 months to 4.3 months of inventory.

For more information and to download the October 2019 Central Texas Housing Market Report, visit www.abor.com/statsoct19.