Travis County Far Short Of Coronavirus Herd Immunity Goal: Report

AUSTIN, TX — Some 1.7 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine will need to be administered for Travis County to reach a herd immunity level of 67 percent, according to a new report released Friday when health officials announced 30,000 have been administered in the region to date.

The study conducted by Sendero Health Plans titled “Using Health Insurance Network Provider Data and Public Data Sets to Identify SARS-CoV-2 Vaccinators in the USA” was published in “Frontiers in Public Health’’ The research suggests Travis County has far to go to reach the 67 percent immunity threshold, which is the level identified by scientists to disrupt person-to-person transmission of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

So far, 150,550 doses have been allocated to Travis County since the vaccine became available, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services website.

In a separate announcement detailing the opening of a third vaccination site in northern Travis County, Austin Public Health officials disclosed that some 30,000 of the first vaccine doses have been administered to date. There are about 80,000 individuals who have preregistered for vaccination who fit into Phase 1A or 1B, officials noted, and more than 500,000 in 1A or 1B in Austin-Travis County. The former phase centers on frontline workers while the latter relates to seniors and those with compromised immune systems.

Related story: 3rd Coronavirus Vaccination Site Opens In North Travis County

“The goal of this recent research is to assist public health officials by quantifying the number of doses of vaccine to be administered in our community to reach herd immunity, which will enable our community to get back to normal,” said Dr. John Litaker, PhD, the study’s principal author, in a prepared statement. “We estimate that to administer 1.7 million doses over the course of 26 weeks, 65,000 doses will need to be administered weekly. Based on current provider capacity — for both clinicians and pharmacies — we estimate upwards of 50 percent of these doses will need to be provided at mass vaccination sites.”

The study also cited vaccine data from the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic and compared that pandemic with the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, H1N1 vaccine coverage only reached 31.8 percent in Travis County during H1N1. To reach herd immunity in Travis County, 67 percent coverage is needed — more than two times over what was achieved ten years ago. Moreover, when compared to the H1N1 vaccination effort, 1 million more doses of the COVID-19 vaccine will need to be administered.

“The study suggests we need an all-hands-on-deck approach by the medical community and pharmacies to vaccinate our Central Texas community quickly and effectively to battle COVID-19,’’ Wesley Durkalski, CEO of Sendero Health Plans, said in a prepared statement. “As a nonprofit community-based health plan, Sendero is committed to supporting health initiatives and research that benefit our members and the Central Texas community we serve. By supporting research that establishes a goal for the COVID-19 vaccine effort in the coming weeks and months, we are hopeful we can assist public health officials in Austin and Travis County in their planning and execution.”

To read the full report, click here.

About the lead authors

• John Litaker, PhD, MSc., MMedSc is a public health expert and research scientist with degrees in pharmacoeconomics, public health, and medical science from the University of Texas at Austin, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and the University of Hong Kong, respectively. He has spent 20 years working as a scientist and public health expert in public health emergency preparedness and the last five years applying his skills as a scientist and researcher in the health insurance industry.
• Richard Taylor, PhD, MPH is an infectious disease epidemiologist who previously worked at the CDC as an epidemic intelligence service officer and career epidemiology field officer. He worked at DSHS as the manager of strategic preparedness and current is a clinical assistant professor at the University of Texas at Austin where he teaches epidemiology and other public health courses.