Research Authority: Houston-Area Economy To Add 30,000 Jobs in 2017, But Sector Layoffs Will Continue

HOUSTON, TX — The Greater Houston Partnership's 2017 report is out, and it brings mixed numbers to the table for the Houston economy. The worst of the oil downturn is in the rearview mirror and the city will see the addition of nearly 30,000 jobs next year, but layoffs in the energy and construction fields will continue, the forecast predicts.

"Everyone can uncross their fingers now, because the worst is over," wrote Patrick Jankowski in the report. "2017 isn't likely to be a banner year for the region's economy, but it should be a further step on the road back to robust growth." Jankowski is senior vice president of research at the organization and was the lead preparer of the forecast. The Houston area added an average of 100,000 jobs annually between 2011 and 2014.

The forecast reported that Houston’s economy shrank as a result of lower oil prices, but that unemployment never dropped below 5.8 percent.

"The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) placed the metro area’s gross domestic product at $503 billion in ’15, down from $522 billion in ’14," he wrote in the report. "Given that ’16 started on a weak note, manufacturing remains sluggish, and construction has slowed, one shouldn’t expect any improvement when BEA reports Houston’s GDP for this year."

The agency's report included some interesting figures about job losses and gains. For example, for the period between December 2014 and October 2016, the hospitality sector (hotels, restaurants, and bars) added 27,600 jobs, while manufacturing gave up 30,400 positions. Healthcare and public education added 24,500 and 11,200 jobs, respectively, and engineering services and employment services lost 10,700 and 5,400.

"Recovery for the energy industry won’t occur until crude prices approach $60," Jankowski wrote. "The recovery in manufacturing depends on a steady rise in the rig count. The petrochemical construction boom, which offset weakness in upstream energy, is winding down and will become a drag on employment growth."

The report summarizes that Houston is making slow but steady progress: Everyone can uncross their fingers now because the worst is over."

— Image of Houston skyline courtesy Wikipedia.