Daily Case Counts Up 26% As King County Heads Into Easter Weekend

SEATTLE — Coronavirus case counts and hospitalization rates are gaining momentum in King County, and the number of illnesses linked to more contagious variants continues to grow.

Dr. Jeff Duchin, King County's health officer, hosted his weekly COVID-19 briefing on Good Friday, highlighting the latest areas of concern as Washington heads into another holiday weekend, with more opportunities for the virus to spread.

"Cases and hospitalizations are climbing at a steady pace, and we don't have any indication that this trend will be leveling off soon," Duchin said. "As I said last week, we can't predict how big the surge will be or how long it will last, or exactly how much damage it will cause. We need to be prepared for further increases in cases and hospitalizations over the coming weeks, as the effect of recent travel, increasing activities and the impact of more infectious variant strains continue to promote the spread of COVID-19."

According to public health data, King County's case counts rose another 26 percent this week, averaging 250 each day. That total is roughly 80 percent higher than in February when the first signs of an upward trend emerged. The county's 14-day rate of cases by population rose 37 percent, now hovering around 150 cases per 100,000 people over the last two weeks.

"Vaccination ultimately will bring this pandemic under control, and the impact of COVID-19 will decrease as more people are protected," Duchin said. "At the moment, the virus is spreading more quickly than we can vaccinate. The threat is real and it remains serious."

The highest share of new infections continues to be seen among younger adults.

"Since early March, incidence rates have been trending up for all age groups, except for the 75 and older," Duchin said. "The highest rates are in the 18 to 24-year-olds, followed by 25 to 49-year-olds, and the 5 to 17-year age group."

Case rates remain relatively low among those ages 65 to 74, the health officer said, but did see some growth throughout March. While death rates continue to fall, now averaging one per day, the number of hospital admissions is growing.

"Last week, 82 King County residents were hospitalized with COVID-19, up over 60 percent from the prior week," Duchin said. "Most recently, hospitalization rates have been primarily among 40 to 69-year-olds, followed by the 20 to 39-year-old group. We're also seeing some increase now among the 70-plus age range."

Hospitalization rates are also trending in the wrong direction, having doubled since early March, but they remain well below the peaks reached during the fall and winter surge. However, Duchin notes, younger adults are still susceptible to serious illness, and a segment of the county's older population still lacks immunizations.

"Although most of our oldest adults have been vaccinated, not everyone is vaccinated," Duchin said. "When transmission increases in the community, the virus can still find its way to those who are most vulnerable and unprotected."

As exposures increase, infection points vary

Contact tracing efforts continue to show a variety of community settings linked to new infections, but the virus is gaining more ground in certain spheres as more social activities resume.

Duchin said infections linked to child care and K-12 settings have risen from 2 percent of cases in January to 5 percent over the last three weeks. The county has also identified at least eight outbreaks associated with youth sports leagues during the two months.

"These teams have been reporting taking precautions during gameplay and practices," Duchin said. "However, our teams have found transmission risks [and] opportunities for COVID spread during transportation to sports, travel to tournaments, communal meals, and socializing that happens before and after games. It's really important for everyone to remember that precautions taken during gameplay are very important, but they also need to be taken any other time athletes and their families are together."

Other highlights in exposure data over the last month include:

• 40% of cases reported going to work during their exposure period.
• 30% of cases reported attending community or social events, including family visits, group meals, parties and weddings (up 10% from January).
• 11% reported visiting bars and restaurants.
• 10% reported visiting retail establishments.
• Cases reporting travel during their exposure period doubled from 4-6% in January to 8-11% over the last four weeks, including people returning from spring break trips.

Duchin reiterated that unvaccinated people should continue to avoid unnecessary travel, and those who choose to take trips should get tested before and after travel, then stay home for a week when they return.

New federal guidance for vaccinated people calls for some precautions during trips, including proper mask use and monitoring their health, but testing and quarantine periods are deemed unnecessary.

More than 100K vaccinated in King County last week; supply outlook improves

King County's vaccination efforts kept up a strong trajectory in recent days, due in large part to the county receiving its highest number of doses in a single week. Duchin estimated King County received 147,000 total doses, including 90,000 first doses.

This week's vaccine highlights include:

• Nearly 700,000 King County residents have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, equaling about 30 percent of all residents 16 and older.
• Among older adults, 85% have received at least one dose, well above the national average of 74%. In the same group, 64% are now fully vaccinated, compared to 52% across the nation.
• All racial and ethnic groups passed the 70% threshold for one or more doses this week.

Limited vaccine supplies have been the county's primary obstacle in scaling up its immunization efforts, but state officials are optimistic that federal shipments will increase substantially through April and beyond.

Related: Washington's Vaccine Forecast Improves: More Doses In April

"Last week, I expressed concern about expanding eligibility if the vaccine supply is not adequate, to avoid having newly eligible people — who are at lower risk — compete with those who are currently eligible by virtue of increased risk or equity considerations," Duchin said. "Gov. Jay Inslee has assured us the vaccine supply will be adequate to open eligibility to all on April 15."

Before April 15, King County estimates 300,000 currently eligible people will need their first dose. If shipments keep pace, there may be enough to meet that need.

"For the coming week, we expect the vaccine supply to be very close to where we think it needs to be, if sustained, to meet the damnd of currently eligible people," Duchin said. "We hope things continue to move in the right direction."

Even with an improved outlook, when eligibility expands to another 1.2 million Washingtonians in mid-April, it is unlikely everyone will be able to get a shot on day one.

"If supplies do continue to increase, we should have a smaller mismatch between doses available and people who are eligible," Duchin said. "It will still take time to become vaccinated...it's not going to be everyone at once, but there will be more opportunities to get vaccinated."

If demand significantly outpaces supply, the county will ask providers to prioritize higher-risk groups until deliveries catch up.

Having a safe Easter weekend

With another holiday weekend on the doorstep, health officials encourage safer Easter celebrations by avoiding large gatherings and limiting socializing among unvaccinated groups to the outdoors. For fully vaccinated people, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its guidance for gatherings ahead of the holiday.

"It's just such a terrible thing that this outbreak has done to us, where we have to worry about our holidays, instead of celebrate them," Duchin said. "I encourage people to have a happy Easter and celebrate it with joy safely, and that means not gathering with people from outside their household, who are unvaccinated, indoors. Outdoor gatherings would be great."

Duchin noted that Washington's previous COVID-19 surges came in the wake of holidays, due to more travel and more gatherings without precautions.

"Each of our waves was preceded by a holiday season," he said. "Our summer wave by Memorial Day, 4th of July and Labor Day. Then we had Thanksgiving and Christmas and New Year's coincident with our very large, most recent fall and winter wave. Now we've had spring break and Easter, and we're in the process of accelerating towards a fourth wave. I encourage people to celebrate with their loved ones, to enjoy the holiday, but to please do it safely and remember that this outbreak is not over."

Duchin concluded Friday's briefing with a nod to the Seattle Mariners' triumphant opening night win at T-Mobile Park on Thursday, likening the team's rally to what the broader community must do to defeat the virus.

"A come from behind win over COVID-19 is exactly what we all need right now against a virus that is getting ahead of us late in the game," Duchin said. "Every unearned run the virus scores is another family member, friend or coworker sickened or hospitalized. COVID-19 is not going to collapse in the bottom of the 10th and hand us a victory. We're going to have to work for it a bit longer until more of us are vaccinated. It's time to rally and shut it down once and for all."