King County's Coronavirus Metrics Are High, But Stable For Now

KING COUNTY, WA — King County's weekly coronavirus briefing offered up a mix of good and bad news Friday, as the county's COVID-19 metrics have stabilized but continue to hover alarmingly close to state thresholds.

Dr. Jeff Duchin, the public health officer, provided his latest analysis of the trends, including a few areas of concern, as variant strains gain ground and an inadequate supply of vaccines continues.

King County's case counts have kept relatively static over the last two weeks, most recently averaging about 294 per day, Duchin said. The county's 14-day case rate sits at 198.5 per 100,000 people and continues to narrowly meet both of the state's Phase 3 thresholds. On Monday, Washington leaders moved three counties backward for failing to meet both metrics on new cases and hospitalizations. The next statewide evaluation is scheduled for May 3.

"We've had now almost two months without significant progress in decreasing the level of COVID-19," Duchin said. "After a recent rise, cases and hospitalizations are substantial but holding steady. We remain at risk for a worsening outbreak over the coming weeks."

While a stalled upward trajectory is preferable to things getting worse, the county's goal is to reverse the momentum and significantly reduce transmission until a much larger contingent of the population is immunized.

"As we're vaccinating more people, at the same time, more contagious variants are spreading, and they make it much easier for the virus to spread through the community," Duchin said. "We will need to, unfortunately, continue to take these COVID-19 prevention steps very seriously for the next month or two at least, as we get more and more people vaccinated, to put us in a relatively good position with respect to minimizing the number of illnesses and hospitalizations that we're seeing occur in our young and middle-aged adults."

According to county data, young adults and middle-aged people account for the bulk of new cases and hospitalizations, as the oldest and most vulnerable are increasingly protected through vaccinations. The age group with the fastest-growing rate of illness continues to be residents between 18 and 34.

Daily hospital admissions grew another 15 percent in the last week, totaling 97, and rates in south and southeast King County continue to be 2 to 3 times higher than Seattle and the Eastside. While younger people are at a lower risk for COVID-19 deaths, they still can occur, and serious illness is possible across age groups.

"With protection of older adults through vaccination, the proportion of deaths in younger age groups is increasing," Duchin said. "Over the past 14 days, 9 percent of deaths are in the 25 to 49-year-old age group, compared to 2 percent overall during the outbreak."

Related: Where To Find Vaccine Appointments In Washington

While overall death rates remain low, averaging between one and two per day, they are still happening, and a subset of older adults are still in need of vaccination.

"When transmission increases in the community, the virus can still find its way to those who are most vulnerable and remain unprotected," Duchin said. "Although less frequent, COVID-19 does cause serious hospitalization, as well as deaths, in younger adults."

Though all Washingtonians 16 and older became eligible for vaccines Thursday, getting enough doses to reach hundreds of thousands more will take time. Until then, it's a race against the clock as more infectious variants take hold.

Duchin said the B.1.1.7 variant, first identified in the UK, is doubling every two weeks in the state's sequencing data. Right now, Washington is analyzing approximately 8 percent of all positive COVID-19 tests for the variants of concern and has detected them in more than 1,000 King County cases. Officials say that number is just a fraction of what is actually occurring.

"These are all more infectious viruses that represent a significant and increasing threat to our ability to bring this outbreak under control," Duchin said. "We need to up our ante of COVID prevention to stay in the game."

Health experts recommend a familiar set of practices to protect against the variants, like using well-made, well-fitting masks in public spaces, limiting activities with unvaccinated people outside the household, avoiding crowded indoor areas and being mindful of ventilation.

"The bottom line is I can't predict where we're going to go, I can only encourage people to do everything they can to put us in the right direction, bend that curve down, and suppress the virus," Duchin said. "We will be vaccinating as quickly as humanly possible with whatever doses we get. All of this should help us counteract the influence of new variants and decrease the likelihood that we will cross a threshold requiring us to step back to more restrictive activities."

More than 51% of King County has at least a dose; 900K in search of vaccines

On the vaccination front, Duchin reported more than 51 percent of King County residents 16 and older have now received at least one dose of vaccine, amounting to nearly 1 million people. Approximately 32 percent are fully vaccinated. Among older adults, 90 percent of people 65 and older have one dose, and 76 percent are fully vaccinated.

With an estimated 650,000 King County residents newly eligible to seek vaccines this week, joining roughly 250,000 in previous tiers who still need their first dose, federal supply chain issues present a significant and growing roadblock.

"We believe there are approximately 900,000 people in King County who are eligible for vaccine today," Duchin said. "Unfortunately, the Department of Health tells us the vaccine supply will remain flat for the next few weeks. As a result, it will be difficult for everyone who wants to get vaccinated today to be vaccinated as quickly as possible."

Duchin said the county was expecting just 76,000 doses this week, which was not enough to cover the existing tiers, even before the state expanded eligibility Thursday.

"We had believed that supply would be increasing at the time that eligibility was increasing," Duchin said. "In fact, the supply has decreased. This week, 'Vax Day' week, we have fewer doses than we had two weeks ago."

The good news, Duchin said, is the setbacks are temporary, and deliveries will eventually catch up with the growing need.

"This temporary decrease in doses will be time-limited," Duchin said. "We expect by late April, significant increases in doses again. It will take time for everyone who is interested in getting vaccinated to get an appointment."

In the meantime, one last push is needed to prevent more unnecessary illness until there is enough vaccine for it to become the primary defense tool.

Duchin concluded Friday's briefing with a community plea:

"We are in a standoff with this virus currently, and this is not the time to blink. The growing number of people being vaccinated is undoubtedly limiting damage from these new variants and from our increasing activities. The relatively low number of deaths currently is a tribute to the effectiveness of vaccination in our high-risk adults. Increasing vaccination coverage ultimately is our best weapon against COVID-19, but at the moment we can't rely on vaccine alone to fully counteract the threat of a variant-driven surge in the next month. Depending solely on vaccine right now is like fighting with one hand tied behind our back when we need a double-fisted strategy. Let's continue to do all we can, to work together to knock this virus out once and for all."