Phase 2 Rollback Imminent As King County Rates Start To Stabilize

SEATTLE — After weeks of rising case counts and hospitalization rates in King County, the recent coronavirus wave appears to be leveling off. However, while both metrics have stabilized, they remain above the thresholds needed to stay in Phase 3, and officials say that is unlikely to change in time to avoid a rollback Tuesday.

Dr. Jeff Duchin, health officer for King County, hosted his weekly COVID-19 briefing Friday, offsetting the bad news with a few rays of hope on the horizon.

"This week's forecast is for stormy weather continuing, but there are reasons for optimism about the long-range forecast," he said. "After six weeks or so of increasing counts, the number of new cases this week remained stable compared to last week, with an average of 350 to 360 cases a day, which is more than double the level we were seeing in early March."

Though the rise in infections among younger and middle-aged adults has slowed, Duchin said it was too soon to know for certain whether King County has truly hit a turning point in the surge.

"A worrisome sign is that test positivity has been up and on an increasing trend," he said. "We're estimating that the percent positivity is close to 6 percent now, which is about three times what it was in early March. This indicates a substantial number of cases not being tested or identified."

Related: WA's 4th Wave Shows Early Signs Of Plateau, But Rates Still High

Coronavirus-related deaths have remained stable for weeks, now estimated at one per day. With the vast majority of older adults now immunized, the proportion of deaths among adults between the ages of 35 and 64 continues to grow.

Younger adults, whose vaccination rates are lower, also make up the bulk of new hospitalizations.

"Over the past week, twice as many young adults, 20 to 39, were hospitalized compared to people over 70," Duchin said. "The increasing number of cases and hospitalizations among young adults reinforces that COVID-19 can cause severe disease in people of all ages. There's still a lot we don't know about the disease and its long-term health impacts, even for people who do not require hospitalization."

Moving back to Phase 2 is nearly certain next week

Washington state leaders will evaluate all 39 counties on Monday and announce Tuesday which ones will move backward in the Roadmap to Recovery plan. Under the current framework, each county must meet at least one of two metrics to remain in Phase 3. State health officials estimate a dozen counties are near the threshold that would trigger a rollback.

King County is currently failing both metrics, with a 14-day rate of cases and a 7-day hospitalization rate well above the line.

While the final decision is still a couple of days away, Duchin reiterated that the data the state examines has a 7-day lag for case counts and a 10-day lag for hospitalizations, meaning that the evaluation will not include the most recent days. As a result, it appears inevitable that King County will revert to Phase 2.

"The dates on which those metrics are calculated are in the past; it's already happened, and it's a done deal," Duchin said. "As much as I would love to go back in time and change things in a way that would decrease the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations that occurred in King County, I just can't do that."

Rolling back to Phase 2 will mean the return of heightened restrictions, like cutting indoor capacity at gyms, bars and restaurants in half, from 50 percent to 25 percent. Unless the state alters the existing framework, the move will also place more strict limits on the number of spectators at professional sporting events.

The health officer said he remained confident that the situation can be turned around quickly, by keeping up prevention strategies until more unvaccinated people become immunized.

"As we vaccinate more people, the risk for us having further surges decreases," Duchin said. "This is the great thing about vaccination, it's a long-term pathway out of this outbreak. It's our ticket to freedom."

Provided vaccination efforts pick up pace across younger age groups, and people follow health and safety measures — like limiting activities with unvaccinated friends, avoiding crowded indoor spaces and wearing masks outside the home — Duchin said King County residents might return to their "pre-COVID lifestyle" by summertime.

"At the moment, we don't have enough younger and middle-aged adults vaccinated to counteract the impact of variants that spread more easily," he said. "Because vaccines take a few weeks to be fully effective...limiting activities and doing things more safely is the fastest way to turn the current surge around."

Boost in King County's vaccine supply allows for quick and easy appointments, but recent demand has 'softened'

More than 42 percent of King County residents 16 and older are now fully vaccinated, and over 64 percent have received at least a first dose, according to the latest public health data. The numbers are much higher for those in the oldest age bracket, who became eligible earlier, with 81 percent fully vaccinated, and 96 percent with at least a first dose.

The challenge now, Duchin said, is reaching a large segment of younger adults who still need their vaccines but haven't chosen to get one for one reason or another.

A significant boost in local supply has allowed cities and counties to rapidly expand vaccine offerings, including thousands of appointments available daily across Seattle. Some sites, including the county-run vaccination centers in Kent and Auburn, now allow walk-ins.

"We encourage everyone that has not been able to find an appointment in the past to try again now because it's much easier and it's much quicker," Duchin said. "We know it will take some time to reach all who need or want to be vaccinated in this younger age group, [and] we know there can be barriers to those who want to be vaccinated, including work schedules."

Despite the availability, Duchin said the level of demand in some places is "softening," and the county is working to extend weekend and evening hours and find new ways to offer vaccines where they are most convenient.

"We've seen across the community where vaccine is being offered that there's less demand regardless of venue at the moment," Duchin said. "We are working very hard to try and help people understand the value of vaccination, both individually and to the community as a whole, the safety and effectiveness of vaccination, and how vaccination really is the only way that we are going to get back to our pre-COVID lifestyle."

Ultimately, Duchin said, the best way to prevent further rebounds in case counts and end ping-ponging restrictions is to get as many people immunized as quickly as possible.

He closed Friday's briefing with a pitch for everyone to roll up their sleeves:

"I think it's clear now that our best path out of this painful cycle of COVID-19 resurgence and restrictions, and for our return to normalcy as quickly as possible, is by rolling up our sleeves and getting vaccinated. Getting vaccinated is important for ensuring not only our own health, but the health of our family members, friends, co-workers and others we come in contact with.

With COVID-19 we depend on one another for community protection, including for highly vulnerable people who might not respond to vaccination because they're immunocompromised, with a weakened immune system from disease, from treatment or from medications. We all know people like this, if we realize it or not. There are tens of thousands or more immunocompromised people in King County alone.

The more people that are vaccinated, the less COVID-19 will circulate and the safer we will all be. I'm confident that with increasing vaccination coverage, in the near future we'll see a sustained decrease in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and fewer large outbreaks that are so disruptive in our workplaces and other settings where people gather throughout the community.

With increasing vaccination, we'll also be able to bid good riddance to the difficult restrictions that were once our only option for control of COVID-19, before we had highly effective vaccines. The bottom line is simple: How successful we will ultimately be as a community, and how quickly we will get back to normal life, depends on how many of us get vaccinated and how quickly. To be truly successful, we'll need ongoing high levels of vaccination coverage not only in King County, Washington and the U.S. but throughout the entire world."