Chief Economist: 18 More Months of 'Muddling Through' for Washington State

Issaquah and Lake Washington school district administrators, as well as other government officials in the region, will likely be paying close attenion to Thursday's state revenue forecast because it will reveal an updated amount of the shortfall in tax dollars to Olympia. 

If comments made by Arun Raha, the state's chief economist, on KING-5's "Up Front" public affairs program on Sunday are any indication, it could be a nail-biting day for Sammamish-area officials. School districts, in particular, rely on state dollars to help classroom operations and student support - and .

"The state economy seems to have slowed down," Raha told Robert Mak of KING-5. "I'm not ready to say it's in a recession. But it looks like it will be another year and a half of muddling through."

In the interview, which lasts 8 minutes and can be watched in full on KING5.com, Raha defined that as "slow job growth, slow economic activity growth, weak confidence, weak consumer spending and, of course, weak revenues."

Raha pointed out that aerospace, software and agriculture remain pillars of the state economy. But there is one area that has yet to regain the momentum it once had in the state - construction.

"They're not enough to counterbalance the weakness we have in our construction sector," he said, referring to those three other areas.

Mak asked what advice he would give to state lawmakers. Raha declined, noting that he does not give that type of policy advice. But he suggested one move that would help the state economy.

"I would ask our state's citizens to, if they have enough money and they're confident of not losing their job to go out and spend some of it," he said.

"Because that's what ultimately gets the economy going, consumer demand."

At recent board meetings for the and , officials talked openly about dealing with a mid-year cutback in state money. Many dubbed it a "clawback."

The two district were able to use reserves or levy money - or a combination of both - to stave off cuts to classroom support for this academic year. But officials said going to those sources of money to fill in the gap of state dollars cannot be done for the long term.

In its budget, the Issaquah School District . Some classes in the Lake Washington School District - but administrators said they do not believe it will make for a significant impact on a child's education.

Editor's note: Specific revenue forecast information for the state of Washington can be found on the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council's website.