Monsoon Prediction Update: NWS Says 2022 Could Be Wetter Than Usual

PHOENIX, AZ — Phoenix had seen a measly .55 inches of rain so far in 2022, as of Sunday, making it the seventh-driest start to a year on record, according to the National Weather Service.

"It's only going to get worse in the short-term as we don't expect much to change in our weather pattern," Jared Heil, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Phoenix said in a video posted by the weather service.

No rain is in the forecast for the Phoenix area for the next two weeks.

But there's hope that this year's monsoon could be wetter than usual, Heil said.

A new seasonal forecast for June through August issued last week by the Climate Prediction Center calls for a 39 percent chance of above-normal precipitation during the monsoon. The chance of normal monsoon precipitation was 33 percent with a 28 percent chance of below normal rainfall.

Temperatures are forecast to be above normal for most of the U.S. this summer, including Arizona.

So far this year, the western portion of Arizona — including Phoenix — has received 25 percent or less than the average amount of rainfall it usually receives through April 25.

Much of the western half of the U.S. is experiencing drought, including Arizona, but Phoenix is still classified in the fairly mild drought status of abnormally dry, mostly because of the extra-wet monsoon in summer 2021, Heil said.