New Arizona 2022 Monsoon Outlook: Above Normal Rain, Temperatures

ARIZONA — The National Weather Service predicts above normal rainfall during the 2022 monsoon in the Phoenix and Tucson areas, but the odds are far from definitive.

It's just slightly less likely that Arizona's most populated areas will see normal or below normal rainfall, the weather service announced in its 2022 Arizona Monsoon Outlook video.

The weather service is much more confident in its prediction that pretty much all of Arizona will see above normal temperatures from June through August.

The monsoon officially begins next week, June 15 and runs through Sept. 30, but only Mother Nature will decide when cooling rains will provide some temporary relief from the scorching desert summer. Both the Tucson and Phoenix areas have extreme heat watches in effect later this week, when temperatures are expected to reach 109 and 114, respectively.

This year's monsoon could start out with more dust storms than usual, along with elevated wildfire risks, because of a particularly dry winter. The cool season, from October through April, was the 19th-driest on record this year in Arizona. This has led to widespread drought across the state.

Dry vegetation, gusty winds and the possibility of dry lightning storms will all contribute to the fire risk early in the season.

Most of Arizona saw above normal amounts of rain during the 2021 monsoon, making it the 9th wettest on record for the State. Phoenix got 4.2 inches last year, well above its monsoon average of 2.43. Tucson got a whopping 12.79 inches last year, making it the third-wettest season on record. Tucson averages around 5.55 inches during a typical season.

Arizona usually gets 30-60 percent of its annual rainfall during the monsoon, with Phoenix and other lower desert areas seeing around 10 days with measurable rainfall during the Monsoon. Higher mountain areas sometimes have 30-50 days with measurable rain.

One of the biggest hazards during the monsoon is lightning, according to the weather service. Arizona sees over half a million lightning strikes each season. In the lower deserts, including the Valley, thunderstorms are most likely in the later afternoons and evenings.