NOAA Releases Newest Winter Forecast For Arizona

ARIZONA — Arizona could be in for a warm, extremely dry winter this year, according to the latest forecast released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Thanks in part to an ongoing La Niña weather pattern, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — is predicting extreme drought and warmer-than-average temperatures for our state.

Arizona is already experiencing one of its hottest and driest summers on record, thanks to a weak monsoon season, and it is expected to continue into the winter. Most of Arizona will likely experience "extreme" drought, with parts of southern Arizona readying for "exceptional" drought. The greatest chances for warmer-than-normal conditions extend from the Southwest, across the Gulf states and into the Southeast, according to NOAA.

As we head into winter, NOAA’s forecast for the United States calls for warmer, drier conditions across many of the Southern states, and cooler, wetter conditions in the North.

The forecast calls for a lesser chance for warmer temperatures in the southern parts of the West Coast, and from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. Above-average temperatures are also favored for Hawaii and western and northern Alaska.

Below-normal temperatures are expected in southern Alaska and from the northern Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains. Remaining regions could see equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

Wetter-than-average conditions are seen as most likely across the northern tier of the United States, extending from the Pacific Northwest, across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes, and into the Ohio Valley. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are predicted in the Southwest, across Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and in Florida.

NOAA also plans to closely monitor persistent drought conditions through the winter months. Right now, more than 45 percent of the continental United States is experiencing drought.

With a La Niña climate pattern in place, southern parts of the country may experience expanded and intensifying drought in the months ahead.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update is to be released Nov. 19.