Polls Show Trump And McSally Trailing In Arizona Swing State

PHOENIX — Arizona Republican Sen. Martha McSally trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points in a key battleground U.S. Senate race that could hurt President Donald Trump's chances of winning Arizona in the Nov. 3 general election.

A survey released this week by OH Predictive Insights shows Arizonans' support for McSally has narrowed steadily since April. McSally lost a close race to Democrat Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in 2018 and then was appointed to fill the seat vacated with the death of Sen. John McCain, who had represented Arizona in the Senate for nearly 20 years.

In April, the same poll showed 42 percent of 600 likely Arizona voters favored McSally, compared to 51 percent who said they'd vote for former astronaut Kelly. By May, the poll said, Kelly had picked up key support among independents for a 51 percent to 38 percent lead over McSally.

The McSally-Kelly Senate race in the critical battleground state of Arizona is one of the most closely watched in the country as Democrats try to flip the Senate.

“McSally is doing terribly,” pollster Mike Noble told the Arizona Republic political columnist Laurie Roberts. “There’s no way to find a bright spot on that one.”

McSally has aligned herself closely with Trump, who is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, in Arizona. A RealClear Politics polling average shows Biden leading Trump in Arizona by 4 points among likely voters.

The last time Arizona awarded its electoral votes to a Democrat was in 1996 when President Bill Clinton was re-elected to a second term.

Arizona is a key battleground state in both the U.S. Senate and presidential elections. The state's gradual shift to more liberal politics — Trump carried Arizona by less than 4 points in 2016, and in the midterm elections two years later, four state offices in Arizona flipped from Republicans to Democrats — is a concern for Trump.

Trump's senior political advisers warned Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell that McSally's slide in the polls was worrisome to the president, Politico reported. A McConnell spokesman told the political news site the majority leader "is fully supportive" of McSally and "believes she's on a path to victory in November."

McSally campaign manager Dylan Lefler told Politico he is confident "the Republican Party is fully invested in keeping Arizona red in November because control of the White House and the Senate depends on it."

Kelly's is the most well-funded campaign in the Senate, according to Politico. Campaign finance reports show he had raised $31 million by March, compared to $18 million raised by McSally.