CA Spring Forecast And Drought Outlook: Warmer Than Usual Temps Likely

CALIFORNIA — A healthy snowpack will keep California drought-free for the second year running, and the risk of flooding will melt away even as parts of the state experience warmer-than-usual weather this spring, according to federal forecasters.

On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2024 Spring Outlook, highlighting positive news for the Golden State, bolstered by powerful late-season storms.

"Just like last year, 2024 began with a parade of atmospheric rivers, but the focus of this moisture this year was further south into central and southern California," said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Climate Prediction Center's Operational Prediction Branch. "The good news, [is] the wet winter has eased the drought significantly in the southern Plains and the Gulf Coast region and parts of the Southwest, especially in California, continue to receive drought relief and add to the reservoir levels in the region."

Forecasters noted California's active winter helped add to the already-healthy water supply and lent to a Sierra snowpack that landed right in the sweet spot to limit most flood concerns as it melts.

"We're not expecting a very high probability of any flooding within California for that long-range outlook," said Brett Whitin, a hydrologic forecaster for the California Nevada River Forecast Center. "When we have normal snowpack it is kind of a lower risk. We can get it, [but] it all depends on those temperatures that occur throughout the spring."

The Climate Prediction Center said much of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest could see below-average precipitation over spring, and most of the continental U.S. could run a little warmer. New seasonal outlooks issued Thursday showed even odds for a wetter or drier spring across the Golden State while favoring a warmer trend emerging in Northern California.

Forecasters are increasingly certain of a shift from El Niño to neutral conditions during the spring before La Niña takes hold later in the year.

"Our scientists at the Climate Prediction Center observed one of the strongest El Niño events on record during the winter of 2023-2024," Gottschalck said. "But a quick transition to La Niña — the cool phase of ENSO — is possible as early as the first part of summer.”

La Niña is typically linked with drier winters in much of California, but several influences can play a role, and a weak La Niña in the 2022-23 season landed the Golden State one of its wettest winters on record.

Even with El Niño on the way out, the Climate Prediction Center said its effects may still be felt in early spring.

A storm due this weekend is forecast to dump between 1 and 3 feet of fresh snow over the Sierra this weekend, and a winter storm warning will be in place for the west slope of the Northern and Central Sierra until Sunday morning. A winter weather watch is also in place for Southern California's mountain range where up to a foot of fresh snow is expected through Monday morning.