CA's Snowpack Falls Below Normal: What To Expect From Weak La Niña Winter

CALIFORNIA — The winter of 2024-2025 has been abnormal because snow has fallen in every state in the nation, and it has snowed — a lot — in areas that rarely need their shovels.

In this upside-down winter, southern Gulf states saw once-in-a-lifetime snowfall this past week. Some areas of the Florida Panhandle received 8 inches of snow, which, once confirmed by NOAA’s State Climate Extremes Committee, will shatter a record of 4 inches recorded in Milton that has stood since March 6, 1954, The Weather Channel reported.

The Golden State has received more than 41 inches of snow so far this winter. Our state in general has received less than average snow this winter, according to the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program. However, the bulk of the snow has fallen in the northern part of the state, which was hit with a bomb cyclone and a series of atmospheric river storms late last year.

Southern California's rain and snow season has been at record lows all winter, with the first significant snowfall of the season happening Sunday. Southern California's mountains are under a winter weather watch, with as much as 14 inches of snow expected through Monday.

Though extreme, the pattern is typical of La Niña, which is linked to wetter winters in Northern California and drier conditions in the south. This year's La Niña has been a little atypical. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this La Niña was slow to develop, arriving later than expected. Compared to historic standards, this La Niña has been weak. La Niña is likely to stick around through the spring.

"La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance)," the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center noted.

The Department of Water Resources' electronic Jan. 2 readings from 130 stations placed throughout the Sierra Nevada indicate that the statewide snowpack’s snow water equivalent was 10.7 inches, or 108 percent of the average compared to 28 percent at the same time last year.

“While our snowpack looks good now, we have a long way until April when our water supply picture will be more complete,” said Department of Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth said at the time. “Extreme shifts between dry and wet conditions are continuing this winter and if the past several years are any indication, anything could happen between now and April and we need to be prepared.”

California has seen this pattern before. In both 2013 and 2022, the January snowpack was well above average thanks to December storm activity, only for dry conditions to take over the rest of the winter, quickly erasing early season snow totals and continuing existing drought conditions across the state, the Department of Water Resources warned.

Already that appears to be happening. As of Friday, the state's snowpack had fallen to 72 percent of average — 101 percent in the Northern part of the state and 57 percent in the South, according to the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program.

“We are fortunate to have had several solid snow-producing atmospheric river systems so far this season,” said DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit Manager Andy Reising. “The fall was extremely dry, so our healthy snow totals are thanks to a handful of big storm systems in November and late December. But to finish the year where we need to be, we will still need additional snow building at a regular pace throughout the winter.”

It remains unclear if California will keep pace. The next significant storm to hit Southern California is expected in mid-February, according to long-term weather models.

While the southern part of the Golden State sinks deeper into drought status, Gulf states were slammed with icy and snowy weather, some farther north areas typically buried in snow have received only a dusting this winter.

In fact, the storm totals in Lafayette and New Orleans, Louisiana; Mobile, Alabama; and Pensacola, Florida, are greater than the snowfall recorded since last fall in New York City, Philadelphia, Salt Lake City; Omaha, Nebraska; and Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

The snowfall deficits in those five cities range from a few inches to 22 inches, as is the case in Salt Lake City, according to The Weather Channel. Omaha and Sioux Falls have deficits of 11.7 inches and 16.8inches, respectively.

Smaller deficits were reported in New York City, which is about 5 inches shy of its typical snowfall by this point in the winter, and Philadelphia, where totals are about 3 inches below normal.

Also noteworthy, with 9 inches of snow in Tuesday’s blizzard, Lafayette, Louisiana, had received almost as much snow in a single day as Chicago (9.2 inches) and Minneapolis (9.8 inches) have all winter. Both Chicago and Minneapolis are running snowfall deficits this winter.

Hawaii is a tropical state but receives snow every year at the 13,000-foot and higher elevations of The Big Island’s Mauna Kea volcanic summit, which saw its first snow of the season in late October. Snow is common at nearby Mauna Loa as well.

It’s not common for all 50 states to receive snow in a single season, but it does happen occasionally, notably in February 2010, according to NOAA.