Unusual Conditions Loom: Here’s What To Expect From Winter 2025-26

This winter is expected to be warm and dry in California, according to AccuWeather, which released its 2025-2026 winter forecast Thursday.

The private weather company predicts California and the rest of the West Coast could see a possible drought, worsening wildfire conditions.

Higher-than-normal temperatures across the northern Pacific Ocean are likely to bring a milder winter to the West Coast and Rocky Mountains, according to the forecast.

“These waters off the West Coast and extending farther out are very, very important going into our [winter] forecast this year,” Pastelok said, pointing out there haven’t been many winters in recent decades with a similar setup across such a vast area of the ocean.

Pastelok noted that if the above-normal sea surface temperatures persist throughout much of the season, the Northwest may experience a mild and dry winter. This warm and dry trend will be most evident in California. January might bring some precipitation as the storm track shifts south, but as it retreats north in February, near-record highs are possible in California and most of the Southwest and Rockies.

California and the Southwest can anticipate a prominent warm, dry pattern, which is expected to exacerbate drought conditions and increase the risk of wildfires occurring out of season, the private weather company reported.

The January storms are unlikely to significantly improve drought conditions, which Pastelok anticipates will worsen in 2026.

The wild card is whether there’s a La Niña or an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, either of which can greatly influence how storms develop in North America, especially in the winter. In a La Niña, the water near the equator in the Pacific Ocean is cooler than the long-term average over three months. It’s the opposite in an El Niño pattern.

RELATED La Niña Winter Likely: Here's What It Means For CA

in August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a La Niña Watch for the fall and winter of 2025-26, meaning there is at least a 50% chance of a weak La Niña developing later this year.

Even if a La Niña doesn’t officially develop this winter, there may be times when weather patterns seem as if it has — for example, with the warmer weather across the southern U.S., Pastelok said.

Overall, weather patterns will run the gamut from snowy nor’easters and frigid Arctic blasts to continued drought and warmth.

The Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic are expected to see stormy weather, according to Paul Pastelok, lead long-range meteorologist at AccuWeather. The most significant storms are expected to occur during the opening and final weeks of the season.

Certain areas in the Northeast, such as Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston, may experience more snowfall this winter compared to last year. However, the total snowfall could still be below historical averages because some storms later in the season might bring a mix of rain and snow.

Cold weather is expected to settle in early December across more than a dozen states in the Plains and Midwest, with a brief respite anticipated in January. According to AccuWeather, the cold will return and spread across the central and eastern United States in February.

Winter temperatures are expected to be milder further south, with fewer and less intense cold air blasts.

“The Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast should run above historical averages on temperatures, and below on precipitation,” Pastelok said, adding that warm water in the Gulf could fuel severe thunderstorms, including those with damaging winds, lightning and tornadoes.

A major blast of Arctic air isn’t out of the question in the South, though. Pastelok said a major pattern shift around late January or early February could mean “significant cold air” could sweep into Texas and the Gulf Coast. That’s historically when the polar vortex has the highest potential to shift south, unleashing some of the coldest air of the season across North America, according to research by AccuWeather’s team of long-range forecasters.