7 Things To Know About Prop 50, CA's Lone Ballot Measure

Voters across California are weighing in on a single Nov. 4 ballot measure: Proposition 50, a proposal that would allow the state to redraw its congressional maps before the next census — potentially giving Democrats a chance to retake Congress next year.

If voters approve the measure, California would redraw its congressional maps through 2030, potentially giving Democrats up to five additional seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Gov. Gavin Newsom has cast the effort as a defense of democracy and a direct counter to a Trump-backed gerrymandering push in Texas aimed at bolstering his party's chance at keeping control of Congress.

To help voters make sense of what’s at stake, Patch spoke with Matt Barreto, a UCLA political scientist and co-founder of the Latino Policy & Politics Institute, and Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, who offered sharply different views of the measure’s implications.

Here are seven things to know about the measure.

Democrats say it aims to level the playing field with other states

Barreto said Proposition 50 represents “a chance for California to compete on the same playing field” as states that are taking the unusual step of redrawning their districts mid-decade at the behest of the president.

“From a Democratic standpoint, we don’t want any state gerrymandering,” Barreto said. “But we also don’t want some states to play by different rules. Every state should be playing by the exact same rules in America.”

If voters approve the measure, California could temporarily redraw its congressional districts before the next census. While the move is technically a form of gerrymandering, Barreto said voters should think about it in a broader national context — not just what it means for California.

“Voters should be putting themselves in that national context and not just thinking about California,” he said. “If they’re not okay with what states like Texas and Missouri are doing, Proposition 50 gives them the opportunity for California to play by the same rules and the same standards.”

Republicans say Prop 50 is costly, unnecessary and politically driven

Coupal said the estimated $300 million cost of the special election is one of his group’s chief objections. He argued that the proposal undermines reforms voters approved when they created the Independent Redistricting Commission to limit partisanship.

State analysts, however, project a much smaller cost — a few million dollars statewide to update election materials, according to the Legislative Analyst’s Office.

“The question is, why is the state of California doing this?” Coupal said. “It’s doing this in response to what’s going on in other states. California ought to be looking at its own policies and institutions before worrying about Texas or any other states.”

Typically, Golden State's districts are drawn by the independent commission based on census data every ten years.

“Unlike Texas and most other states, California decided to control that process as a way to prevent radical gerrymandering,” Coupal said. “Those reforms were meant to remove partisan politics from drawing the maps, and that’s a good thing.”

Coupal added that many voters don’t realize they would be voting on specific congressional maps, not just the process, and warned that the move could set a precedent for future changes to state legislative boundaries.

“If they get away with this for the congressional maps, they’ll be right back to do it for the state maps,” he said. “At that point, it will be a direct threat to taxpayers.”

He dismissed claims that the measure would “save democracy,” calling that notion “silly.”

“For Californians, the issue is what’s good for California — not what’s happening in Texas,” Coupal said.

Unlike other states, CA voters will have final say over the new districts

While critics including former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger have called Prop 50 “anti-democratic,” Barreto argued that the measure is, in fact, more democratic than most.

“In other states, lawmakers just passed it despite hundreds of people showing up to hearings to say ‘please don’t redraw our maps,’” Barreto said. “In California, voters are being asked directly.”

He said the measure is complex, and voters should research how it could change their districts or representatives.

"It is a complex issue, though. You have to do a little bit of research. You have to check how it affects your district. You have to check if you’re going to be getting a new member of Congress as a result of this map and if you support that. "

Coupal told Patch that he's concerned voters still may not fully understand what they’re approving.

“I don’t believe the voters fully understand what’s going on,” he said. “The yes side has really obfuscated the issue through a massive media effort. I don’t think people understand that they’re actually voting for specific maps. Their new representative may live 300 miles away from where they reside.”

READ MORE: Schwarzenegger Calls On Californians To Reject Redistricting Proposal

It could expand representation for Latino, Black and Asian voters

Barreto said new maps could create more opportunities for candidates from underrepresented communities.

“The new maps create more opportunities for Black, Latino and Asian voters,” he said. “You’re probably going to see additional Latino and Asian candidates run for — and win — some of these new congressional seats.”

He added that nothing is guaranteed: “These are just district boundary proposals. You still need strong candidates to compete in each district.”

Legal challenges are likely

Barreto said the measure was “very smartly worded” to comply with California’s constitution because it does not eliminate the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission.

“The commission only exists in the year following the census,” he said. “Proposition 50 does nothing to that commission — it just creates temporary districts for the next few elections.”

He said legal challenges are expected from Republican groups, but similar attempts to block the measure from the ballot have already failed.

Coupal countered that the measure undercuts the intent of those earlier reforms.

READ MORE: Trump Threatens To Sue CA Over Redistricting Days After Praising Texas Gerrymandering Plans

It could test Newsom’s national influence

Over the weekend, Newsom finally confirmed what many have suspected for months now — he's considering a presidential run in 2028. But first, the governor says he is focused on the 2026 midterms, which will be swayed by the outcome of Proposition 50.

Newsom has been the driving force behind the measure, describing it as a defense of democracy against “Trump-style redistricting.” Barreto said the outcome could affect the governor’s national standing.

“If Prop 50 passes, it really bolsters his standing — and it does so through a democratic vote, not an executive order,” Barreto said.

Coupal sees it differently.

“It also seems to be that we’re spending $300 million to really advance and elevate the political career of one individual,” Coupal said. “I’m not sure that is an appropriate use of taxpayer money.”

READ MORE: Newsom Says He Is Considering A 2028 Presidential Bid

So far, Democratic voters are turning out in higher numbers

While most Republicans are expected to oppose Proposition 50, a measure that could shift California’s congressional balance toward Democrats, Barreto said the GOP’s resistance hasn’t translated into high voter turnout.

“Right now, it seems like most Republicans are opposed to Prop 50,” Barreto said. “However, based on the ballot return data that we’re seeing, it does not appear that Republican enthusiasm is very high.”

Barreto noted that Democratic voters are casting ballots at a significantly higher rate than Republicans in the lead-up to the Nov. 4 election. That imbalance, he said, could point to strong momentum behind the measure.

“If Prop 50 passes by 20 points or more, it’ll show Democrats still have strong momentum in this state,” he said. “If it ends up much closer — around 10 points — that would suggest Democrats didn’t do as well as they hoped.”

Coupal believes opposition to Prop 50 extends beyond partisanship.

“People who view themselves less as partisan voters and more as good-government voters are more likely to oppose this,” he said. “Those are the Californians who understand that redistricting reforms were put in place to take politics out of the process, not to put it back in.”

READ MORE: A Rich Scientist Is Determined To Sink Prop 50: Report