How A Strong El Niño Winter Could Affect CA Utility Bills

ACROSS CALIFORNIA — Amid recent pains at the gas pump for Californians, there is some good news on another fuel front. California residents who heat their homes with natural gas can expect to pay less this winter than last, according to a new winter fuels forecast released Wednesday by the government.

Natural gas prices are about 40 percent lower than at this time last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its report. Electricity and propane prices are expected to remain stable, but people who use heating oil, such as in the Northeast where it is used extensively, are expected to pay more.

The approximately 60.1 million households nationwide, including 15.4 million in California, that burn natural gas as their primary source of heating fuel can expect to pay an average total of about $601 to heat their homes this winter. That's down about 21 percent from last winter, the EIA projected.

In California and neighboring Western U.S. states, natural gas customers can expect to pay an average total of about $590 to heat their homes for the winter, from November through March. That's down by 30 percent from last winter.

Also, according to the projections for California and the rest of the West, electricity costs are projected to drop by 9 percent, for an average total of $1,007 to heat a home for the five-month period.

Nationwide, the average cost to heat a home with electricity is forecast at $1,063 for the winter, down 1 percent from last year. That takes into account the 9 percent drop in the West and 2 percent drop in the Midwest but a 4 percent increase in the Northeast and a 2 percent increase in the South.

Propane costs are expected to go down by 3 percent, for an average cost of $1,343 nationwide over the winter.

Heating oil costs are projected to be up 8 percent this winter, for an average cost nationwide of $1,851 over the winter.

The projections are driven by the supply and demand for winter heating fuels and inventories but are also influenced by weather. Various winter weather outlooks say a strong El Niño climate pattern could bring more snow to parts of the country, but it could also keep temperatures mild.

The El Niño effect is good news for people living in the western U.S., where temperatures are expected to be warmer this winter than last year when temperatures were much colder than usual. In short, Californians should pay less overall, regardless of the type of fuel they use.

The average demand for heating fuels exceeds supplies, but both gas and propane inventories were above five-year averages going into winter, the Energy Information Administration said, while inventories of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil, were “well below” average.