Rumors Of Presidential Run Swirl As Newsom Seeks Re-election

CALIFORNIA — Gavin Newsom has continued to firmly seal his position as California's governor after surviving a recall election that threatened to oust him, then gliding to an easy victory in June.

Will the governor stride into another landslide win in November? Recent polls suggest so. Newsom leads Republican opponent Sen. Brian Dahle (R-Bieber) by a 27-point margin — 58 to 31 percent — among likely voters, according to a September Public Policy Institute of California survey.

Heading into the Nov. 8 General Election, the Democratic governor will debate the lesser-known Dahle, a rival he beat out by more than 40 points in the June primary.

The governor hasn't said much of the upcoming debate hosted by KQED other than: "I said I would debate; we’ll leave it at that."

Instead, Newsom has set his targets on a governor over state lines — or six to be exact.

In the midst of a recent Twitter spat, Newsom challenged Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to a debate, triggered by DeSantis' claim that Newsom's brain had been muddled by his hair gel.

Newsom's re-election campaign also spent millions renting billboards in six states that have abortion bans this year.

The governor appears to have traded in a Nov. 8 campaign to instead ruffle feathers in other states. His recent moves have sparked rumors of bigger political ambitions. The governor has denied rumors of a presidential run repeatedly in recent months.

“No, not happening. I cannot say it enough,” Newsom said. “I never trust politicians, so I get why you keep asking.”

But many aren't buying that answer.

"It's pretty clear that Gavin Newsom is going to run for president," Dan Schnur, a political communications professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and the University of Southern California, told Patch. "It's just a question of whether he runs in 2024 or 2028.

"In the meantime, going after high-profile national Republicans is also a very effective way for him to unify his base here in California. Not every Democrat agrees with Newsom on every issue — but they all can agree that they hate Ron DeSantis."

Newsom's repetitive refutes of the idea are part of the strategy and not technically a lie, Schnur said.

"It looks disrespectful to President Biden," Schnur said. "It looks like he's trying to elbow Biden off the stage, and it looks like he's not paying full attention to his full-time job back home.

"And he's technically telling the truth. He is absolutely, doubtlessly not running for president at this precise moment."

Newsom could also be set on Sen. Dianne Feinstein's seat. Should she retire soon, he could appoint himself. If she waits until the end of her term, Newsom would get a head start in that race by stirring presidential speculation, according to Schnur.

"Newsom is setting a course for higher office, after his tenure as governor," Sonja Diaz, director of UCLA's Latino Policy and Politics Institute, told The Guardian.

Meanwhile, Dahle has been working to make a name for himself among California voters, with much less funding than Newsom. But it seems far from likely that he could have a shot at winning in blue California in November.

"California Republicans didn't get themselves into this situation overnight and they're not going to get out of it right away either," Schnur said. "It's very unlikely that Dahle wins this election, but he may represent a first step back in the right direction for California Republicans."

A note about Dahle — he is the first Republican gubernatorial finalist to have successfully held an elective office since 1998, Schnur said.

"I don't know that it gives him a big advantage, but it points to the possibility that Republicans may realize they have to rebuild their party from the ground up," he said. "For many years, it looks as though they've been searching for a magic candidate who can swoop in and save them.

"It worked with Schwarzenegger, but not with any of the others."

It is possible that the Oct. 23 debate between Newsom and Dahle could place him in a more competitive position.

"But it doesn't happen very often," Schnur said. "Even if Newsom were to commit some kind of horrible gaffe, you can then spend millions of dollars, effectively erasing it from the voters' consciousness."