Rare La Niña Three-Peat Forecast Amid CA’s Unrelenting Drought

CALIFORNIA — La Niña could stick around until as late as 2023, making it the third such weather event since 1950, according to the United Nations World Meteorological Organization.

The protracted La Niña weather event is credited with worsening California drought conditions, which has prompted significant water restrictions throughout the Golden State in recent months. Millions of acres across California also face tinderbox conditions about two years into the current La Niña weather event. The state saw some of its worst-ever wildfires during the current La Niña, and another year of hot, dry conditions would likely exacerbate the state's water shortages and wildfires.

La Niña is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean during which strong trade winds bring cold water to the surface off the coast of the Americas. The weather event is known to cause drought in the United States and rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada, according to the National Ocean Service. La Niña is the cold opposite of El Niño and causes cold winter weather in the north and warmer weather in the south.

Should La Niña last through 2023, it would be only the third time the weather event has lasted for three consecutive winters in the northern hemisphere since 1950, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

The weather phenomenon is expected to decrease slightly through the summer and increase once again in the Northern Hemisphere in fall and early winter 2022, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

The current La Niña event started in September 2020, according to the World Meteorological Organization. There is roughly a 70 percent chance the condition will extend into summer 2022 and a 50 to 60 percent chance of it lasting through July and September. That probability could go up again for the fall and winter.

Beyond California, La Niña has affected the ongoing drought in the Horn of Africa and Southern South America, according to the World Meteorological organization. The weather event also contributed to increased rainfall in Southeast Asia and Australia and a predicted nasty hurricane season in the Atlantic.

"Human induced climate change amplifies the impacts of naturally occurring events like La Niña and is increasingly influencing our weather patterns, in particular through more intense heat and drought and the associated risk of wildfires — as well as record-breaking deluges of rainfall and flooding,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a news release.