These CA Counties Are At Risk For Housing Market Decline

CALIFORNIA — Over a dozen California counties are among the 50 nationwide most vulnerable to housing market decline, according to a recent impact risk report from analytics curator ATTOM.

The report, which identified the counties most at risk based on home affordability and equity in the third quarter of 2024, said 13 California counties were among those across the country most vulnerable to housing market troubles. Other at-risk markets included certain counties in New Jersey, Illinois and Florida, according to ATTOM, which noted markets in the southern U.S. tended to be less vulnerable.

The California counties among those most at-risk were: Riverside, San Bernardino, Contra Costa, Butte, El Dorado, Humboldt, Solano, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin and Stanislas, ATTOM reported.

“As with past reports, this one is not meant to suggest any given area is about to fall or is immune from problems,” CEO Rob Barber said, according to ATTOM. “Rather, it spotlights locations that look to be more or less able to withstand significant changes in market conditions.”

Housing market risk was determined based on the rate of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion of mortgage balances exceeding estimated property values, the percentage of typical wages needed to pay for major home ownership costs on a median-priced house, and unemployment, according to ATTOM.

Riverside and El Dorado counties had some of the highest percentages of average local wages needed to cover ownership expenses at 70.2 percent and 66.3 percent, respectively, ATTOM reported.

Merced, Kern, Kings and Madera counties were among those with the highest August unemployment rates, ranging from 9.1 percent to 7.4 percent, according to ATTOM.